Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Nov 17, 2021

Updated: Wed Nov 17 20:30:03 UTC 2021

Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area No Risk Areas Forecast

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 172026

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0226 PM CST Wed Nov 17 2021

   Valid 191200Z - 251200Z

   An upper-level trough will exit the Northeast with flow becoming
   much more zonal across the central and western portions of the U.S.
   at the end of this week. By the end of the weekend, an intensifying
   upper-level trough is expected to dig southeastward into the upper
   Midwest while a ridge builds across the western third of the
   country. A more progressive pattern is forecast to evolve by mid
   next week with a trough eventually moving into the Southwest and
   Southern Plains. At the surface, a modest cold front will move
   southward into the Plains with high pressure increasing within the
   Great Basin this weekend. Another, stronger cold front will move
   through the Plains mid-to-late next week; however, timing
   differences in guidance exist given the varied upper-level evolution
   between models.

   ...Southern High Plains...
   Friday has potential for elevated fire weather across parts of the
   combined Panhandles into western Oklahoma. With the dry and windy
   conditions on previous days, fuels in parts of these areas have
   continued to dry further. While winds of around 20 mph are probable,
   the main question will be how much airmass modification can occur.
   At present, temperatures in the 60s F would likely only support
   marginally low RH values. Highlights will be withheld given this
   uncertainty.

   The next potential for critical fire weather in the region will be
   next Tuesday afternoon. The next upper-level trough will move
   through the Southwest and promote a stronger lee trough/cyclone. As
   this will occur on the heels of another modest cold front late this
   weekend, there is some uncertainty regarding surface temperatures
   and, consequently, RH values. However, the synoptic pattern will
   favor relatively strong southerly/southwesterly winds.

   ...Central High Plains...
   Depending on upper-level and surface details, an increase in
   westerly winds at the surface and aloft are possible on Tuesday. As
   with areas to the south, RH reductions are somewhat uncertain. Winds
   just above the surface will also be lacking as compared to the
   southern Plains. While fire weather could potentially near critical
   thresholds, confidence is low.

   ...Southern California...
   Confidence in the upper-level pattern for Sunday and Monday has
   increased as the GFS has trended more towards the ECMWF in recent
   runs. Both models now place the western extension of the broad
   Midwestern upper trough into the southern Great Basin/Lower Colorado
   Valley. Any closed upper low that develops is forecast to be much
   farther west. This pattern would better align upper-level winds with
   the offshore gradients and bring higher wind gust potential. There
   does remain some possibility that the strongest offshore gradients
   (on Sunday) will be offset from the lowest RH (on Monday).
   Probabilities will continue to be deferred to see whether the
   upper-level pattern trends are stable and to hopefully gain more
   confidence in when stronger winds will favorably overlap with
   critically low RH.

   ..Wendt.. 11/17/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

   CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT