Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Nov 18, 2021

Updated: Thu Nov 18 20:32:03 UTC 2021

Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area No Risk Areas Forecast

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 182029

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0229 PM CST Thu Nov 18 2021

   Valid 201200Z - 261200Z

   Zonal flow aloft will be present to start the forecast period. A
   subtle shortwave trough in the Great Basin will move east and
   eventually phase with a deepening upper trough in the Midwest. The
   upper-level pattern will be much more amplified going into the new
   week with a deep eastern trough and western ridge. A potent upper
   trough is forecast to deepen and dig into southern California by
   midweek before becoming nearly cut off from the stronger westerly
   flow toward the end of the week. At the surface, a cold front will
   move through the southern Plains this weekend with stronger high
   pressure setting up in the Great Basin. Another cold front is
   possible into the Plains by next Thursday/Friday.

   ...Southern California...
   Confidence continues to increase in Santa Ana winds bringing
   critical fire weather to portions of the higher terrain in southern
   California. Offshore winds may develop late Saturday, but are
   expected to peak on Sunday. Model guidance shows a stable trend in
   favorable mid-level wind support for stronger gusts over the past
   two days of runs. Winds seem likely to continue into Monday as well,
   but there is some uncertainty as to how low RH will be prior to
   winds decreasing in intensity by Monday afternoon. For now,
   highlights will be restricted to Sunday where confidence is higher.

   ...Southern/Central High Plains...
   A shortwave trough and surface cold front will move through the
   Southern Plains by late Saturday. Ahead of the front, some dry and
   windy conditions are possible in parts of eastern New Mexico into
   the Texas South Plains. Given the rather weak surface low forecast,
   winds are not likely to exceed 15 mph in most places.

   Greater confidence in stronger surface winds exists as the next
   upper trough approaches both regions on Tuesday. A deeper lee trough
   and eventual cyclone development in the central Plains is forecast
   to occur. There are timing and magnitude differences in the GFS and
   ECMWF regarding the upper trough which decreases confidence in the
   location of pertinent surface features. Furthermore, the more
   southern track of this upper trough will bring mid-level moisture
   northward, as evidenced by mid/upper cloud layers in forecast
   soundings. Models, consequently, are not showing broadly dry
   conditions. No highlights will be added given the low confidence in
   RH, but areas of elevated fire weather risk appear probable given
   the pattern.

   ..Wendt.. 11/18/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

   CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT