Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
|
| D3 | Sun, Nov 21, 2021 - Mon, Nov 22, 2021 | D6 | Wed, Nov 24, 2021 - Thu, Nov 25, 2021 |
| D4 | Mon, Nov 22, 2021 - Tue, Nov 23, 2021 | D7 | Thu, Nov 25, 2021 - Fri, Nov 26, 2021 |
| D5 | Tue, Nov 23, 2021 - Wed, Nov 24, 2021 | D8 | Fri, Nov 26, 2021 - Sat, Nov 27, 2021 |
| (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) | |||
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 192054 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CST Fri Nov 19 2021 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z The extended period will begin with an upper trough deepening across the central U.S. as a mid-level ridge overlaps a surface High across the interior West Day 3/Sunday. Strong, dry offshore flow reinforced by the coupled surface high/mid-level ridge is expected to foster fire weather conditions across southern California Sunday into early Day 4/Monday. By Days 4-5/Monday-Tuesday, the upper trough across the central CONUS will move over the East Coast as a second upper trough impinges on the Rockies, promoting regionally dry and breezy conditions from eastern Montana to the Texas/New Mexico border. The backside of the second upper trough is expected to meander around the Southwest Days 6-7/Wednesday-Thursday, potentially supporting a modest surface pressure gradient and associated offshore dry flow across southern California, though confidence in this scenario is currently low. ...Days 3-4/Sunday-Monday - Southern California... A strong surface pressure gradient is expected to maximize in intensity during the Day 3/Sunday period across California, when widespread 20+ mph sustained offshore flow is expected to coincide with 10-20% RH during the morning to early afternoon hours. Given the presence of fuels that are at least modestly receptive to fire spread, 70% Critical probabilities were added for Sunday across portions of the Santa Ynez to Laguna Mountains, where the strongest winds/lowest RH are expected to overlap for at least a few hours. 40% Critical probabilities were continued over portions of the San Gabriel to San Jacinto Mountains into Day 4/Monday as dry and breezy conditions are expected to last a few hours into the morning. ...Day 5/Tuesday - Central and Southern High Plains... As the axis of a mid-level trough crosses the Rockies on Tuesday, dry and breezy downslope westerly winds are expected across portions of the central High Plains. Medium-range guidance consensus depicts the best surface wind/RH overlap to take place over portions of eastern Colorado into western Kansas, far northeast New Mexico, and the Oklahoma Panhandle. Given modestly dry fuels across this region, with minimal forecast precipitation accumulations, 40% Critical probabilities were introduced. Other terrain-favoring locations may experience occasional dry and breezy conditions from eastern Montana into eastern New Mexico and western Texas. ..Squitieri.. 11/19/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$ CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT