Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Nov 20, 2021

Updated: Sat Nov 20 21:55:03 UTC 2021

Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area No Risk Areas Forecast

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 202151

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0351 PM CST Sat Nov 20 2021

   Valid 221200Z - 281200Z

   A progressive upper pattern will characterize the extended period,
   with multiple mid-level troughs expected to track across the CONUS
   Days 3-8/Monday-Saturday. The first in a series of mid-level troughs
   will traverse the East Coast and eject into the Atlantic Days
   3-4/Monday-Tuesday as a second mid-level trough deepens and moves
   across the interior West. The western trough will overspread the
   Rockies and northern Plains states Day 4/Tuesday, promoting dry and
   breezy surface conditions across the High Plains. In the Days
   5-6/Wednesday-Thursday period, an embedded mid-level impulse will
   diverge from the broader upper trough and move southeast towards the
   California Baja as a cut-off upper low. Deep-layer northeasterly
   winds and an established surface pressure gradient will foster dry
   offshore flow across portions of southern California, where some
   wildfire-spread concerns exist.

   ...Day 3/Monday - Southern California...
   A surface pressure gradient force and associated dry offshore flow
   event is expected to be in the waning stages through the day Monday.
   However, given poor RH recovery expected Day 2/Sunday night,
   Elevated equivalent surface winds/RH are expected to overlap for at
   least a few hours Monday morning, necessitating the maintenance of
   40% Critical probabilities.

   ...Days 3-4/Monday-Tuesday - High Plains...
   As a mid-level trough deepens and progresses over the Rockies Day
   3/Monday and especially Day 4/Tuesday, periodic dry and breezy
   conditions are expected from eastern Montana to eastern New Mexico.
   Latest guidance consensus continues to show the best potential for
   dry and breezy conditions to occur across portions of the central
   High Plains Tuesday afternoon. 40% Critical probabilities have been
   introduced across eastern Wyoming into western Nebraska, and
   southeast Colorado and immediate surrounding areas, where fuels are
   modestly receptive to wildfire spread.

   ...Days 5-6/Wednesday-Thursday - Southern California...
   As low to mid-level northeasterly winds overspread southern
   California, dry offshore flow is expected to ensue as a surface
   pressure gradient intensifies in the Wednesday-Thursday period. Most
   medium-range guidance members depict critically low RH accompanying
   the offshore flow, though uncertainty remains regarding how strong
   the surface winds will become. 40% Critical probabilities have been
   introduced both Wednesday and Thursday to address the entirety of
   the offshore flow event. It is possible that higher Critical
   probabilities or Critical delineations (by Days 1-2) may be needed
   if guidance trends windier.

   ..Squitieri.. 11/20/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

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