Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Nov 21, 2021

Updated: Sun Nov 21 20:47:03 UTC 2021

Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area D3 10,040 68,297 Scottsbluff, NE...Torrington, WY...

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 212043

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0243 PM CST Sun Nov 21 2021

   Valid 231200Z - 291200Z

   A mid-level trough and associated stronger flow aloft will traverse
   the interior West and impinge on the Rockies Day 3/Tuesday, then
   further deepen while ejecting into the central U.S. Days
   4-5/Wednesday-Thursday. Downslope flow to the lee of the Rockies,
   particularly on Tuesday, will promote favorable surface conditions
   for wildfire spread. Also in the Days 4-5 period, a mid-level
   impulse embedded within the upper trough will deviate from the
   broader cyclonic flow aloft, becoming a 500 mb cut-off low and
   drifting toward the California Baja Peninsula. As such, deep-layer
   northeasterly flow will prevail across southern California, with dry
   offshore flow likely Wednesday into Thursday. Thereafter, a
   northwesterly flow regime will prevail across the western and
   central CONUS Days 6-8/Friday-Sunday, with multiple embedded
   mid-level impulses cross the Rockies into the Plains states while
   the 500 mb cut-off low continues to meander over the California
   Baja.

   ...Day 3/Tuesday - Central High Plains...
   Downslope flow along the lee of the Rockies appears prevalent in two
   places based on the latest guidance consensus. The first area is the
   lee of the Laramie Range in southeast Wyoming, where 20 mph
   sustained westerly surface winds and 15% RH are expected to coincide
   for a few hours Tuesday afternoon, warranting the introduction of
   70% Critical probabilities. A similar setup is also expected Tuesday
   afternoon across southeast Colorado into far northeast New Mexico,
   western Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles and extreme southwest Kansas.
   Here, guidance consensus is a bit weaker on overlapping the
   strongest winds/lowest RH for appreciably long periods of time,
   hence the maintenance of 40% Critical probabilities. 70%
   probabilities may be needed in future outlooks pending more
   favorable trends in overlapping Critical surface winds/RH. 

   ...Days 4-6/Wednesday-Friday - Southern California...
   As deep-layer northeasterly flow overspreads the mountainous terrain
   of southern California towards the end of the week, multiple days of
   dry offshore flow will likely ensue as a modest surface pressure
   gradient develops across the area. Critically dry air is expected to
   accompany the offshore flow. However, questions remain whether the
   surface winds can reach Critical criteria, with 40% Critical
   highlights maintained for Days 4-5/Wednesday-Thursday. It is
   possible that offshore flow may continue into Friday, but will
   monitor for guidance consistency before adding Critical
   probabilities past Day 5/Thursday.

   ..Squitieri.. 11/21/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

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