Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Nov 22, 2021

Updated: Mon Nov 22 21:57:02 UTC 2021

Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area No Risk Areas Forecast

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 222153

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0353 PM CST Mon Nov 22 2021

   Valid 241200Z - 301200Z

   A positively tilted, longwave upper trough will move across the
   central and eastern CONUS Days 3-4/Wednesday-Thursday. A mid-level
   shortwave trough will deviate from the broader cyclonic flow across
   the Southwest and traverse the Baja Peninsula as a 500 mb cut-off
   low. Occasionally dry and windy conditions will dominate the High
   Plains while offshore flow becomes established across southern
   California. On Days 5-7, a broad northwesterly mid-level flow regime
   will prevail across the central and eastern U.S. as an upper ridge
   develops across the interior West. Multiple embedded mid-level
   impulses will traverse the Plains states into the Southeast, with
   occasional bouts of dry and breezy conditions possible. 

   ...Days 3-5/Wednesday-Friday - Southern California...
   As a 500 mb cut-off low becomes established across the Baja
   Peninsula later this week, surface high pressure will develop across
   the Great Basin, overspread by modest northeasterly deep-layer flow.
   With the development of a surface pressure gradient across southern
   California, 15+ mph sustained surface northeasterly winds will
   likely occur on a widespread basis, with 15% RH also possible each
   day. Several short-term and medium-range guidance members suggest
   that offshore flow should prevail to some degree into the weekend
   with near-Critical to Critically low RH likely in terrain-favoring
   areas. 40% Critical probabilities have been maintained for Days
   3-4/Wednesday-Thursday given the 15+ mph offshore surface winds.
   However, the lack of a stronger wind field portrayed in the latest
   guidance suggests that higher Critical probabilities are currently
   not needed. Questions also remain how strong offshore flow will be
   by Day 5/Friday, with no Critical probabilities introduced at this
   time.  

   ...Days 3-6/Wednesday-Saturday - Central/Southern High Plains...
   Surface high pressure will continue to surge southeastward across
   the central and southern High Plains Wednesday through Saturday,
   accompanied by cool but very dry air, with RH in the 15-35% range
   expected each day. Cold frontal passages are expected on Day
   3/Wednesday and Day 6/Saturday, with some overlap of dry and windy
   conditions likely. Fuels are expected to remain dry. However,
   position and timing of the cold front passages remains somewhat
   uncertain, precluding Critical probabilities this outlook. 40%
   Critical probabilities (or Elevated highlights by Days 1-2) may be
   needed if a more favorable surface wind/RH overlap can be
   confidently pinpointed. 

   ...Days 3-8/Wednesday-Monday - Southeast...
   Given persistent surface high pressure and resultant lack of
   appreciable rainfall accumulations, especially over southern South
   Carolina into Georgia and the Florida Panhandle, a localized
   wildfire-spread threat may exist. Elevated to near-Critical
   equivalent RH is expected to develop nearly each day around
   afternoon peak heating, with little in the way of meaningful
   rainfall expected. Surface winds however, are expected to remain
   relatively weak, except potentially Day 5/Friday, when a surface
   cold front is poised to move through the area. No Critical
   probabilities have been introduced this outlook on account of the
   expected weaker surface winds.

   ..Squitieri.. 11/22/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

   CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT