Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Nov 24, 2021

Updated: Wed Nov 24 20:24:03 UTC 2021

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 24, 2021
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 24, 2021

Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 24, 2021

Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 24, 2021

Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 24, 2021

Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 24, 2021

Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 24, 2021

Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3Fri, Nov 26, 2021 - Sat, Nov 27, 2021 D6Mon, Nov 29, 2021 - Tue, Nov 30, 2021
D4Sat, Nov 27, 2021 - Sun, Nov 28, 2021 D7Tue, Nov 30, 2021 - Wed, Dec 01, 2021
D5Sun, Nov 28, 2021 - Mon, Nov 29, 2021 D8Wed, Dec 01, 2021 - Thu, Dec 02, 2021
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 242020

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0220 PM CST Wed Nov 24 2021

   Valid 261200Z - 021200Z

   The extended period will begin with a surface pressure gradient
   weakening across southern California as a cut-off upper low weakens
   and drifts away from the Baja Peninsula Day 3/Friday. An offshore
   flow event is expected to be waning by Friday afternoon, though the
   presence of breezy northeasterly surface conditions with critically
   low RH warrants the maintenance of 40% Critical probabilities.

   Across the central and eastern CONUS, a broad northwesterly flow
   regime will prevail aloft Days 3-8/Friday-Wednesday, with multiple
   mid-level troughs pivoting around the northwesterly flow and
   encouraging modestly dry and breezy conditions from the High Plains
   to the Southeast each day. Surface cold fronts are poised to track
   across the Southeast Days 3 and 6 (Friday and Monday), and High
   Plains Day 4/Saturday, encouraging Elevated equivalent surface RH
   and modest northwesterly surface winds. While no Critical
   probabilities have been introduced, a couple Elevated introductions
   cannot be ruled out in future Day 1/2 Outlooks.

   ..Squitieri.. 11/24/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

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