Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
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| D3 | Sun, Nov 28, 2021 - Mon, Nov 29, 2021 | D6 | Wed, Dec 01, 2021 - Thu, Dec 02, 2021 |
| D4 | Mon, Nov 29, 2021 - Tue, Nov 30, 2021 | D7 | Thu, Dec 02, 2021 - Fri, Dec 03, 2021 |
| D5 | Tue, Nov 30, 2021 - Wed, Dec 01, 2021 | D8 | Fri, Dec 03, 2021 - Sat, Dec 04, 2021 |
| (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) | |||
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 262041 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CST Fri Nov 26 2021 Valid 281200Z - 041200Z ... OVERVIEW ... A broad western United States ridge and eastern trough will remain the background midlevel pattern this week. This favors seasonably-to-unseasonably warm, dry conditions across much of the West, Rocky Mountains, and High Plains, and cooler, wetter conditions across the Pacific Northwest, Northern Rockies (along the Canadian border), and portions of the East. Smaller-scale perturbations within the larger-scale flow will drive any deviations from this background state and any fire concerns. ... DISCUSSION ... A couple of time periods and regions to watch for increased fire weather potential exist during this forecast period. One such region is across portions of southeast Wyoming and surrounding areas on Sunday (D3). Westerly downslope flow could result in strong, gusty winds and at least seasonably warm temperatures. Uncertainties regarding the degree of warming/drying, and corresponding relative humidity, precluded probabilities at this time. Another area to watch is across portions of the central and southern High Plains mid-week. During this time temperatures will warm and surface winds increase in response to increased lee troughing due to a short-wave trough moving through the midlevel flow. The timing and strength of this short-wave trough will heavily influence the degree of fire concerns. Additionally, the background midlevel pattern will favor the development of weak offshore flow across portions of southern California throughout the week. The strength of this offshore flow will be driven largely by smaller-scale atmospheric features that are poorly resolved at longer lead times. Given typically poor predictability in the timing and strength of smaller-scale features, confidence is too low to warrant probabilities with this forecast cycle. ..Marsh.. 11/26/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$ CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT