Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Nov 27, 2021

Updated: Sat Nov 27 20:00:03 UTC 2021

Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area No Risk Areas Forecast

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 271956

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0156 PM CST Sat Nov 27 2021

   Valid 291200Z - 051200Z

   The established western ridge-eastern trough midlevel pattern will
   persist through the forecast period, keeping much of the area from
   California into the central and southern High Plains warm and dry. 
   Several short-wave troughs will move through the large-scale pattern
   throughout the week before a strong Pacific jet moves into the
   United States by late week. This strengthening midlevel flow, and
   any embedded short-wave trough, may stimulate a breakdown in the
   persistent western ridge-eastern trough midlevel pattern beyond this
   forecast period.

   ... Southern California ...

   Above-normal temperatures and low relative humidity will remain
   through the week, thus fire concerns will be driven largely by the
   surface-pressure gradient. The large-scale pattern will support
   persistent high surface-pressure across the Great Basin and offshore
   flow through much of the week. At this time, the surface-pressure
   gradient looks too weak to support strong surface winds and
   correspondingly critical fire conditions, but locally elevated fire
   conditions may be possible any day during the week. 

   ... Central and Southern High Plains ...

   The large-scale pattern will prevent any appreciable moistening of
   the airmass in place across the area. Thus, fire concerns will be
   driven largely by the strength of the surface wind. Given the
   location of the active mid-to-upper-level jet, periodic surface lows
   will develop in the lee of the Rockies before quickly moving east.
   These surface lows, coupled with the higher surface-pressure across
   the Great Basin, should support episodic tightening of the
   surface-pressure gradient and corresponding increases in surface
   winds. This may result in elevated to locally critical fire
   concerns, but the timing, strength, and location of any of these
   atmospheric features remain too uncertain to introduce critical fire
   weather probabilities at this point.

   ... Southeast United States ...

   A dry airmass will be reinforced multiple times through the forecast
   period as several dry frontal passages fortify the existing
   continental airmass. At this time, forecast winds should remain
   fairly light through the week, limiting overall fire concerns.

   ..Marsh.. 11/27/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

   CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT