Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
| ||||||||
| D3 | Tue, Nov 30, 2021 - Wed, Dec 01, 2021 | D6 | Fri, Dec 03, 2021 - Sat, Dec 04, 2021 |
| D4 | Wed, Dec 01, 2021 - Thu, Dec 02, 2021 | D7 | Sat, Dec 04, 2021 - Sun, Dec 05, 2021 |
| D5 | Thu, Dec 02, 2021 - Fri, Dec 03, 2021 | D8 | Sun, Dec 05, 2021 - Mon, Dec 06, 2021 |
| (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) | |||
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 282131 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 PM CST Sun Nov 28 2021 Valid 301200Z - 061200Z An upper-level trough positioned over the central/eastern CONUS will shift eastward on D3/Tues through D4/Wed. A rather potent mid-level short-wave trough will quickly develop in its wake across portions of the Great Lakes region into the Northeast by D5/Thurs. Thereafter, enhanced northwesterly mid-level flow will overspread much of the northern half of the CONUS. At the surface, a series of cold fronts should sweep through the central/eastern CONUS, while high pressure remains in place over the Great Basin region. ...Portions of Southern California... The aforementioned high pressure in the Great Basin region is forecast to strengthen a bit, starting on D3/Tues morning and lasting through D4/Wed afternoon. The resulting regional pressure gradient should support sustained offshore winds near 20 mph, with gusts of 30-40 mph in terrain-favored locations. With persistent dry conditions favoring low RH values and receptive fuels, 40% probabilities for critical fire-weather conditions have been introduced for both days and the region will be monitored for potential upgrade(s) in future outlooks. ...Portions of the Central/Southern High Plains... With the aforementioned periodic frontal passages, dry/breezy post-frontal and return flow conditions are likely to develop across the region, particularly on D3/Tues and D6/Fri. At this time, the spatial extent of such conditions appears too localized/uncertain to warrant any probabilities, but this region will continue to be monitored in forthcoming outlooks. ...Portions of the Northern High Plains... Strong westerly surface winds are forecast to develop on D4/Wed and D5/Thurs, and may yield some fire-weather concerns. At this time, conditions appear cool enough to keep RH values too high to support any large-scale fire-weather concerns. ..Karstens.. 11/28/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$ CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT