Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Nov 29, 2021
Updated: Mon Nov 29 22:05:03 UTC 2021
Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3
Wed, Dec 01, 2021 - Thu, Dec 02, 2021
D6
Sat, Dec 04, 2021 - Sun, Dec 05, 2021
D4
Thu, Dec 02, 2021 - Fri, Dec 03, 2021
D7
Sun, Dec 05, 2021 - Mon, Dec 06, 2021
D5
Fri, Dec 03, 2021 - Sat, Dec 04, 2021
D8
Mon, Dec 06, 2021 - Tue, Dec 07, 2021
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 292201
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0401 PM CST Mon Nov 29 2021
Valid 011200Z - 071200Z
A swath of enhanced midlevel west-northwesterly flow will persist
across much of the northern CONUS, with multiple embedded midlevel
impulses traversing the flow through the period. A broad surface
ridge will remain in place across portions of the Great Basin
through late week, supporting a continuation of breezy offshore flow
over southern California through at least Day 3/Wednesday. By late
this the week into the weekend, the upper-level pattern should
breakdown as a midlevel trough develops over the West.
...Day 3/Wednesday - Southern California...
Breezy offshore flow and dry conditions will continue on Day
3/Wednesday, especially across terrain-favored areas of Ventura and
Los Angeles Counties. Sustained surface winds near 20 mph and
critically low RH will result in elevated to locally critical
fire-weather conditions. At this time, the strength of the offshore
flow does not appear to support a more widespread critical
fire-weather threat, though trends will be monitored.
...Days 3-8/Wednesday-Monday - Central and Southern High Plains...
Persistent downslope flow will support periods of dry/breezy
conditions each afternoon during peak heating, though confidence is
too low to warrant any fire-weather highlights at this time.
..Weinman/Karstens.. 11/29/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
$$
CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT