Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Nov 29, 2021

Updated: Mon Nov 29 22:05:03 UTC 2021

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 29, 2021
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 29, 2021

Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 29, 2021

Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 29, 2021

Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 29, 2021

Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 29, 2021

Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 29, 2021

Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3Wed, Dec 01, 2021 - Thu, Dec 02, 2021 D6Sat, Dec 04, 2021 - Sun, Dec 05, 2021
D4Thu, Dec 02, 2021 - Fri, Dec 03, 2021 D7Sun, Dec 05, 2021 - Mon, Dec 06, 2021
D5Fri, Dec 03, 2021 - Sat, Dec 04, 2021 D8Mon, Dec 06, 2021 - Tue, Dec 07, 2021
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 292201

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0401 PM CST Mon Nov 29 2021

   Valid 011200Z - 071200Z

   A swath of enhanced midlevel west-northwesterly flow will persist
   across much of the northern CONUS, with multiple embedded midlevel
   impulses traversing the flow through the period. A broad surface
   ridge will remain in place across portions of the Great Basin
   through late week, supporting a continuation of breezy offshore flow
   over southern California through at least Day 3/Wednesday. By late
   this the week into the weekend, the upper-level pattern should
   breakdown as a midlevel trough develops over the West.  

   ...Day 3/Wednesday - Southern California...

   Breezy offshore flow and dry conditions will continue on Day
   3/Wednesday, especially across terrain-favored areas of Ventura and
   Los Angeles Counties. Sustained surface winds near 20 mph and
   critically low RH will result in elevated to locally critical
   fire-weather conditions. At this time, the strength of the offshore
   flow does not appear to support a more widespread critical
   fire-weather threat, though trends will be monitored.  

   ...Days 3-8/Wednesday-Monday - Central and Southern High Plains...

   Persistent downslope flow will support periods of dry/breezy
   conditions each afternoon during peak heating, though confidence is
   too low to warrant any fire-weather highlights at this time.

   ..Weinman/Karstens.. 11/29/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

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