Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
| ||||||||
| D3 | Fri, Dec 03, 2021 - Sat, Dec 04, 2021 | D6 | Mon, Dec 06, 2021 - Tue, Dec 07, 2021 |
| D4 | Sat, Dec 04, 2021 - Sun, Dec 05, 2021 | D7 | Tue, Dec 07, 2021 - Wed, Dec 08, 2021 |
| D5 | Sun, Dec 05, 2021 - Mon, Dec 06, 2021 | D8 | Wed, Dec 08, 2021 - Thu, Dec 09, 2021 |
| (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) | |||
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 012157 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 PM CST Wed Dec 01 2021 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Enhanced zonal midlevel flow will initially be confined to the northern and eastern CONUS through the first half of this weekend, with strong flow overspreading the Mid-Atlantic states. By late this weekend, a midlevel speed maximum will advance southeastward across the northern Rockies, resulting in large-scale trough amplification and the development of a lee surface low over the northern High Plains. Strong flow aloft will gradually encompass much of the Great Plains as the large-scale pattern becomes increasingly amplified into next week. At the same time, an upper-level low will meander over the Baja Peninsula, with deep northeasterly flow briefly developing over southern California. ...Day 3/Friday - Mid-Atlantic... By Friday, the pressure gradient peripheral to a surface low over eastern Canada will be weakening, though a dry post-frontal air mass (RH of 25 to 35 percent) will remain in place. A brief overlap of the dry boundary-layer conditions and modest surface winds (aided by downslope flow) will support locally Elevated fire-weather concerns. At this time, the fire-weather threat appears too spatially limited to warrant any highlights, though trends will be monitored. ...Days 3-8/Friday-Wednesday - Central and Southern High Plains... A persistent downslope flow regime and enhanced surface pressure gradient in the lee of the Rockies will result in periods of dry and breezy conditions each afternoon. While fire-weather delineations will likely be needed in future updates, large differences among the medium-range model guidance casts uncertainty on where and when the best overlap of strong winds and low RH will develop. ...Days 5-6/Sunday-Monday - Southern California... Deep northeasterly flow will briefly develop north of the upper-level low, supporting downslope warming/drying across terrain-favored areas of southern California. It is currently unclear where the strongest winds and low RH will exist, precluding fire-weather highlights at this time. ..Weinman/Bentley.. 12/01/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$ CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT