Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Dec 2, 2021

Updated: Thu Dec 2 22:01:03 UTC 2021

Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area No Risk Areas Forecast

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 022157

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0357 PM CST Thu Dec 02 2021

   Valid 041200Z - 101200Z

   For the first half of this weekend, a belt of enhanced westerly
   midlevel flow will remain confined to the northern CONUS. During
   that time, an embedded low-amplitude shortwave trough will cross the
   northern Rockies, resulting in the development of a lee surface low
   and enhanced pressure gradient over the northern and central High
   Plains. Thereafter, the midlevel flow pattern will become
   increasingly amplified, as a northwesterly midlevel speed maximum
   crosses the central Rockies and induces an additional lee surface
   low over the southern Great Plains. The enhanced pressure gradient
   peripheral to the surface low, combined with a southern-stream
   midlevel speed maximum moving over the area will support dry and
   breezy conditions over much of the southern High Plains on Day
   4/Sunday. By next week, cold surface ridging will overspread the
   Great Plains, generally limiting the fire-weather threat across much
   of the CONUS. 

   ...Day 3/Saturday - Central High Plains...
   Enhanced downslope warming/drying combined with the development of a
   lee surface trough will support a period of dry/breezy conditions
   during the afternoon hours across portions of the central High
   Plains. At this time, the fire-weather threat appears too localized
   to warrant any highlights, though delineations may be needed in
   future outlooks as forecast confidence increases.

   ...Day 4/Sunday - Southern High Plains...
   Deep west-southwesterly flow and a tight surface pressure gradient
   peripheral to a lee surface low over the southern Great Plains will
   likely support enhanced fire-weather conditions over portions of the
   southern High Plains on Sunday afternoon. Continued disagreement
   among the global model solutions on where the best overlap of strong
   winds and critically low RH will develop precludes delineations at
   this time, though probabilities will likely be needed in future
   outlooks as model solutions converge.

   ...Days 4-5/Sunday-Monday - Southern California... 
   As the large-scale pattern amplifies, deep north-northeasterly
   offshore flow should develop over portions of southern California,
   potentially supporting a brief period of Elevated fire-weather
   concerns. Limited confidence in the timing/coverage of dry and
   breezy conditions precludes highlights at this time, though trends
   will be monitored.

   ..Weinman/Bentley.. 12/02/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

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