Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
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| D3 | Sun, Dec 05, 2021 - Mon, Dec 06, 2021 | D6 | Wed, Dec 08, 2021 - Thu, Dec 09, 2021 |
| D4 | Mon, Dec 06, 2021 - Tue, Dec 07, 2021 | D7 | Thu, Dec 09, 2021 - Fri, Dec 10, 2021 |
| D5 | Tue, Dec 07, 2021 - Wed, Dec 08, 2021 | D8 | Fri, Dec 10, 2021 - Sat, Dec 11, 2021 |
| (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) | |||
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 032159 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 PM CST Fri Dec 03 2021 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z ...Day 3/Sunday - Southern High Plains... Enhanced fire-weather conditions appear likely across portions of the southern High Plains on Day 3/Sunday afternoon, warranting the introduction of 40 percent probabilities with this outlook. In response to strong midlevel west-northwesterly flow crossing the north-central Rockies, a lee surface low will deepen over the northern Plains, resulting in the development of a tight surface pressure gradient across the southern High Plains. At the same time, a low-latitude mid/upper-level trough will move slowly eastward across the Baja Peninsula, while a southern-stream speed maximum rounds the base of the trough and overspreads the southern High Plains. As a result, strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will descend the southern Rockies and foster efficient warming/drying of the boundary-layer amid breezy westerly surface winds. ...Days 3-4/Sunday-Monday - Southern California... Deep north-northeasterly offshore flow upstream of the previously mentioned mid/upper-level trough over the Baja Peninsula will strengthen across southern California on Sunday/Day 3 and continue into early Monday/Day 4. During that time, the offshore pressure gradient will tighten and support breezy north-northeasterly surface winds primarily over wind prone areas. Dry antecedent conditions combined with breezy downslope warming/drying will support a period of enhanced fire-weather conditions, mainly over terrain-favored areas. The best overlap of low RH (10-20 percent) and breezy surface winds (25+ mph) appears to be on Day 3/Sunday when the pressure gradient peaks, though poor overnight RH recoveries will support fire-weather concerns into Day 4/Monday. At this time, the fire-weather threat appears too localized and confined to the higher elevations to warrant probabilities, though trends will be monitored. ..Weinman/Moore.. 12/03/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$ CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT