Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
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| D3 | Tue, Dec 07, 2021 - Wed, Dec 08, 2021 | D6 | Fri, Dec 10, 2021 - Sat, Dec 11, 2021 |
| D4 | Wed, Dec 08, 2021 - Thu, Dec 09, 2021 | D7 | Sat, Dec 11, 2021 - Sun, Dec 12, 2021 |
| D5 | Thu, Dec 09, 2021 - Fri, Dec 10, 2021 | D8 | Sun, Dec 12, 2021 - Mon, Dec 13, 2021 |
| (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) | |||
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 052125 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 PM CST Sun Dec 05 2021 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z A general increase in fire weather potential appears probable during the mid to late portions of the upcoming work week for the southern High Plains. Already dry fuels will continue to cure across eastern NM and western TX as long-range ensemble guidance shows low probability for wetting precipitation through at least D7/Friday. During this same period, upper-level ridging over the West Coast is forecast to break down and give way to a series of upper-level shortwave troughs embedded within the mean northwesterly flow over the western CONUS. Each of these waves will help deepen a surface trough in the lee of the southern Rockies that will likely boost westerly downslope winds across east NM/west TX. While deterministic solutions show potential for 15-25 mph winds each day D3/Tuesday through D7/Friday, ensemble probabilities show the highest potential during the second half of the week when a more amplified trough influences the region. Climatological comparisons hint that surface winds associated with this wave may be stronger than seasonally normal winds for the southern High Plains, which suggests a higher potential for critical fire weather conditions. However, confidence in the timing of this feature remains low and casts uncertainty into the overall fire weather threat. Forecast trends will continue to be monitored and risk probabilities may be introduced in subsequent forecasts if confidence increases. ..Moore.. 12/05/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$ CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT