Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
| ||||||||
| D3 | Wed, Dec 08, 2021 - Thu, Dec 09, 2021 | D6 | Sat, Dec 11, 2021 - Sun, Dec 12, 2021 |
| D4 | Thu, Dec 09, 2021 - Fri, Dec 10, 2021 | D7 | Sun, Dec 12, 2021 - Mon, Dec 13, 2021 |
| D5 | Fri, Dec 10, 2021 - Sat, Dec 11, 2021 | D8 | Mon, Dec 13, 2021 - Tue, Dec 14, 2021 |
| (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) | |||
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 062121 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0321 PM CST Mon Dec 06 2021 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Fire weather concerns in the extended period will likely remain confined to the southern High Plains where dry conditions will continue to cure fuels through the end of the work week. Elsewhere, windy conditions are likely for portions of the Southwest and in the lee of the WY and MT Rockies, but cold air intrusions and precipitation chances will limit a more robust fire weather threat. ...D3/Wednesday to D5/Friday - southern High Plains... Fire weather concerns appear likely each day for the remainder of the week for eastern NM and western TX. A series of upper-level shortwave troughs propagating through the region D3/Wednesday and D4/Thursday will strengthen westerly downslope flow off the Rockies, supporting RH reductions into the low 20s (and perhaps teens) with breezy conditions. The weak and transient nature of these disturbances will limit the potential for widespread winds above critical criteria and reduce confidence in the spatial extent of the threat. However, sub-regional swaths of elevated fire weather conditions appear probable both days. A more amplified upper-level low is forecast to eject into the central/southern Plains late Thursday into Friday. An organized surface low over the central Plains will help induce a broad swath of westerly winds across the region that will likely be supported by strong boundary-layer flow. Latest ensemble guidance shows reasonably high probability for sustained winds over critical criteria, while climatological comparisons hint at 850 mb wind speeds in the 90th percentile over the region. Some discrepancy in the placement of key surface features is noted in deterministic solutions, which introduces some uncertainty in the location of the greatest threat, but the noted ensemble and climatological signals have shown enough run-to-run consistency to introduce probabilities for D5/Friday. ..Moore.. 12/06/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$ CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT