Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
| ||||||||
| D3 | Thu, Dec 09, 2021 - Fri, Dec 10, 2021 | D6 | Sun, Dec 12, 2021 - Mon, Dec 13, 2021 |
| D4 | Fri, Dec 10, 2021 - Sat, Dec 11, 2021 | D7 | Mon, Dec 13, 2021 - Tue, Dec 14, 2021 |
| D5 | Sat, Dec 11, 2021 - Sun, Dec 12, 2021 | D8 | Tue, Dec 14, 2021 - Wed, Dec 15, 2021 |
| (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) | |||
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 072121 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0321 PM CST Tue Dec 07 2021 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z Fire weather concerns in the extended period will continue to reside primarily across the southern High Plains. Ensemble and deterministic solutions continue to show low probability for precipitation across much of the southern Plains through the period, which will exacerbate ongoing drought conditions for many locations. Outside of the southern Plains, wetting precipitation and/or cold air intrusions will limit the fire weather potential. ...D3/Thursday to D4/Friday - Southern High Plains... The upper-level low currently off the coast of California is forecast to eject into the southern Plains by D3/Thursday afternoon, quickly followed by a more amplified trough on D4/Friday. Both of these features will induce surface pressure falls/consolidating surface lows in the lee of the Rockies that will support strong westerly downslope winds off the southern Rockies. Critical (20+ mph) winds are probable both days, but are more likely on Friday as strong boundary-layer flow augments surface pressure-gradient winds ahead of an approaching cold front. However, Thursday will likely see the driest conditions of the week with widespread 15-25% RH likely across eastern NM into west TX. A modest influx of Pacific moisture ahead of the approaching wave may moderate diurnal RH reductions Friday afternoon. While confidence in this scenario is somewhat low, it casts enough uncertainty to preclude introducing a 70% risk area. Regardless, critical conditions are possible both days and may extent as far east as central OK on D4/Friday. Beyond D4/Friday, an anomalous upper-level ridge is forecast to begin building over the southern U.S. and will maintain warm/dry conditions. Upper-level disturbances propagating through the western periphery of this feature may bring gusty winds to parts of northeast NM and the OK/TX Panhandles, but confidence in the timing and track of these features remains too low for probabilities. ..Moore.. 12/07/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$ CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT