Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
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| D3 | Fri, Dec 10, 2021 - Sat, Dec 11, 2021 | D6 | Mon, Dec 13, 2021 - Tue, Dec 14, 2021 |
| D4 | Sat, Dec 11, 2021 - Sun, Dec 12, 2021 | D7 | Tue, Dec 14, 2021 - Wed, Dec 15, 2021 |
| D5 | Sun, Dec 12, 2021 - Mon, Dec 13, 2021 | D8 | Wed, Dec 15, 2021 - Thu, Dec 16, 2021 |
| (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) | |||
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 082137 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 PM CST Wed Dec 08 2021 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z Fire weather concerns for the extended period will continue to be focused across the southern to central High Plains where the probability for wetting rainfall will remain limited and windy conditions will be common most days. Outside of this region, seasonally cool temperatures and wetting precipitation chances appear to mitigate additional fire weather concerns. ...Southern High Plains... An amplified upper-level trough is forecast to shift into the Plains through the day D3/Friday. As this occurs, a surface low deepening over KS will induce strong west winds between 20-25 mph from east NM into central OK/south-central KS. Strengthening flow at 850 mb will augment surface pressure-gradient winds and may support frequent wind gusts upwards of 40-45 mph. Several forecast signals (such as high probability for exceeding 20 mph sustained winds in ensemble guidance, the anomalous strength of the surface low, and 850 and 700 mb winds near the 90th percentile compared to climatology) yield high confidence in the wind forecast. However, the coverage of RH reductions into the 15-20% range is questionable due to a modest influx of moisture and possible mid/high-level cloud cover. A 70% risk area is introduced for portions of northeast NM and the western TX Panhandle where confidence in sufficiently low RH is highest. Regardless of this uncertainty, ERC values near or above the 90th percentile coupled with the strong winds will support fire weather concerns for most of the region - including across the OK Panhandle and into southwest KS where RH reductions will not be as pronounced. Although a cold frontal passage is expected during the afternoon hours, gusty winds behind the front may maintain the wind-driven fire weather threat. Further refinement of the risk area appears likely as confidence in the RH forecast improves through Friday. Beyond D3/Friday, ensemble guidance shows high confidence in robust upper-level ridging over the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS that will establish a southwesterly flow regime over the southern High Plains. This may support multiple days of warm, dry, and windy conditions across northeast NM into the TX/OK Panhandles and adjacent areas of southeast CO/southwest KS. While this potential is noted, confidence in the fire weather potential for any one day is too low for additional risk areas. ..Moore.. 12/08/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$ CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT