Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Dec 9, 2021

Updated: Thu Dec 9 21:30:02 UTC 2021

Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area No Risk Areas Forecast

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 092126

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0326 PM CST Thu Dec 09 2021

   Valid 111200Z - 171200Z

   Fire weather concerns will continue to reside across much of the
   southern High Plains through the weekend before expanding northward
   into the central High Plains by mid-week. Long-range ensembles
   continue to show low probability for wetting rainfall across the
   southern and central High Plains through the beginning of the work
   week as upper-level ridging builds over the southern CONUS. This
   synoptic regime will also support well above seasonal temperatures
   next week that should aid in drying fuels. 

   ...D3/Saturday to D6/Tuesday - Southern High Plains...
   Each day during the D3/Sat to D6/Tues will see the potential for
   elevated to critical fire weather conditions. West to southwesterly
   flow aloft will support sequential days of downslope winds from east
   NM into the western OK/TX Panhandles and adjacent areas of southeast
   CO and southwest KS. ERCs across this region are already near or
   above the 90th percentile and poor moisture return with downslope
   drying will maintain the dry air mass already in place. While each
   day has potential for at least localized elevated conditions,
   D4/Sunday will see the best potential for a more robust fire weather
   threat with critical conditions possible across the TX Panhandle as
   a lee trough tightens the regional pressure gradient. 

   ...D7/Wednesday - Southern and central High Plains...
   Both long-range ensemble and deterministic solutions show a decent
   signal for a progressive upper-level wave impacting the central
   CONUS by mid-week. While confidence in details is low at this range,
   the general scenario calls for a deepening surface low attendant to
   the upper-level disturbance to strengthen west/southwesterly flow
   off the central Rockies into the southern and central High Plains.
   Downslope warming/drying from these winds could support a widespread
   fire weather concern along the Rockies and into the central Plains.
   Latest GEFS shows a strong signal for critical winds and high fire
   weather indices, but variability among members and other ensemble
   guidance introduce considerable uncertainty regarding the spatial
   coverage of this threat outside of the immediate lee of the terrain.

   ..Moore.. 12/09/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

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