Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
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| D3 | Sun, Dec 12, 2021 - Mon, Dec 13, 2021 | D6 | Wed, Dec 15, 2021 - Thu, Dec 16, 2021 |
| D4 | Mon, Dec 13, 2021 - Tue, Dec 14, 2021 | D7 | Thu, Dec 16, 2021 - Fri, Dec 17, 2021 |
| D5 | Tue, Dec 14, 2021 - Wed, Dec 15, 2021 | D8 | Fri, Dec 17, 2021 - Sat, Dec 18, 2021 |
| (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) | |||
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 102146 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 PM CST Fri Dec 10 2021 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z Periods of elevated and critical fire weather activity appear likely as an active mid-level jet meanders across the southern and central US through midweek. Across the southeastern US, a building mid-level ridge will support very warm temperatures for December, with highs as much as 15 degrees above average likely. Strong flow aloft colocated with anomalously warm temperatures will result in periods of dry and very windy conditions across the southern and central High Plains. ...Southern and Central High Plains... Critical fire weather conditions appear likely beneath strong mid-level flow across portions of eastern NM and the Panhandles D3/Sun. A subtle mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to advance over the Four Corners as 40-50 kt southwesterlies overspread the southern Rockies. At the surface, a lee low aided by enhanced lift from the approaching shortwave will intensify west to east surface pressure gradients through the day. Low-level surface flow of 20-30 mph will move down the lee side of the southern Rockies supporting very low surface RH below 10%. Warm temperatures, high winds, and fuels above the 90th percentile of dryness will support widespread elevated and critical fire weather conditions across eastern NM and the OK/TX panhandles through the afternoon. 70% probability of critical conditions has been added based on the high confidence from ensemble guidance. ...D4/Mon... Mid-level ridging across the Southeast will intensify shunting stronger mid-level flow to the north and west ahead of a consolidating trough across the West Coast. Low-level mass response is forecast to weaken slightly due to the increasing surface pressure and relaxing west to east surface pressure gradients. However, warm temperateness, low surface RH below 20%, and lingering southwest flow will still support elevated to near critical fire weather conditions through the afternoon. ...D5/Tue through D7/Thu... A strong trough will amplify across the Southwest and southern Great Basin as it begins to eject eastward toward midweek. As the trough moves over the southern Rockies early Day6/Wed, a 90-110 kt mid-level jet will overspread the central and southern High Plains as the trough becomes negatively tiled. A strong lee low will develop across northwestern KS supporting strong southwesterly surface winds across the central and southern High Plains. Model soundings and ensemble guidance support high confidence in sustained surface winds of 25-35+ mph. Given the presence of dry fuels, widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions appear possible. However, low-level humidity values remain somewhat uncertain as cooler surface temperatures and precipitation potential appear poised to limit diurnal humidity values. Widespread fire weather conditions will be contingent upon limited precipitation coverage and surface humidity values reaching near 20-30% during the diurnal cycle. Given the potential uncertainty, critical probabilities will be withheld until greater model consistency is reached. ..Lyons.. 12/10/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$ CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT