Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Dec 11, 2021

Updated: Sat Dec 11 21:44:02 UTC 2021

Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area No Risk Areas Forecast

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 112140

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0340 PM CST Sat Dec 11 2021

   Valid 131200Z - 191200Z

   Largely zonal mid-level flow will become progressively more
   amplified through midweek next week as western US troughing becomes
   established. To the east, subtle mid-level ridging will intensify
   supporting robust warm anomalies across the center and eastern half
   of the CONUS. A series of potent troughs will consolidate over the
   West Coast and overspread the High Plains through mid week
   supporting very warm, dry, and windy conditions. Areas of elevated
   to near critical fire weather will be possible. 

   ...Southern and central High Plains D3/Mon-D5/Wed...
   Southwesterly mid-level flow will begin to intensify ahead of a
   shortwave trough traversing the southern Rockies early in the
   extended period. In response to the approaching upper-level
   perturbation, a lee trough is forecast to strengthen D3/Mon across
   eastern New Mexico, southern Colorado, and the OK/TX Panhandles. To
   the west of the surface trough, dry and breezy downslope flow will
   develop through the afternoon with winds of 15-20 mph and surface
   humidity of 15-20%. With regional fuels remaining quite dry due to
   ongoing drought, elevated to near critical fire weather conditions
   will be likely.  

   Similar conditions will prevail across the southern and central High
   Plains D4/Tue, ahead of an upper-level trough rapidly intensifying
   across the southern Great Basin. H5 flow will increase to 50-60 kts
   across the southern Rockies as the mid-level jet becomes better
   defined ahead of the trough. The increase in large-scale ascent will
   enhance lee troughing and west to east pressure gradients across the
   High Plains. Dry downslope trajectories and anomalously warm
   temperatures will result in a dry airmass (Rh 10-15%) across the
   region. Ensemble guidance lends high confidence in widespread
   elevated to near critical conditions developing across the southern
   High Plains through D4/Tue afternoon. Less confidence exists
   regarding the potential for sustained critical conditions and fire
   weather potential farther north across the central High Plains.
   Ensemble signals remain mixed, with humidity and sustained wind
   values borderline critical. However, deterministic solutions and
   pattern recognition suggest that higher probabilities may need to be
   introduced in coming outlooks.

   Certainty decreases further D5 and beyond, as the large scale trough
   begins to eject across the Four Corners and Rockies. A potent H5 jet
   streak of 90-100kts will move east Wednesday afternoon as a sub
   1000mb lee low develops over the central High Plains. All signs
   point to very strong low-level wind fields (surface winds 25-40 mph)
   developing behind the low and trailing dryline across the High
   Plains. However, deterministic and ensemble guidance suggests
   humidity values may struggle to fall to elevated or critical
   criteria through the day given cloud cover and nearby precipitation.
   The progressive nature of the system may also limit the temporal
   window for sustained fire weather conditions ahead of a cold front
   and rapidly cooling airmass. While probabilities will be withheld
   for now due to uncertainty, the potential for very strong wind
   fields over dry fuels may warrant the addition of higher
   probabilities over portions of eastern NM, western KS and OK/TX in
   subsequent outlooks.

   ..Lyons.. 12/11/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

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