Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
|
| D3 | Tue, Dec 14, 2021 - Wed, Dec 15, 2021 | D6 | Fri, Dec 17, 2021 - Sat, Dec 18, 2021 |
| D4 | Wed, Dec 15, 2021 - Thu, Dec 16, 2021 | D7 | Sat, Dec 18, 2021 - Sun, Dec 19, 2021 |
| D5 | Thu, Dec 16, 2021 - Fri, Dec 17, 2021 | D8 | Sun, Dec 19, 2021 - Mon, Dec 20, 2021 |
| (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) | |||
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 122145 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 PM CST Sun Dec 12 2021 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z In the mid-levels, a strong Pacific trough will consolidate across the West Coast and move east across the central and southern Rockies through mid week. Very strong mid-level flow will overlap the western fringes of warm and dry conditions across the southern US supporting elevated to critical fire weather conditions. Active mid-level flow will continue through the remainder of the extended forecast period, but increasing Pacific moisture and several cold intrusions will likely limit overall fire weather potential beyond midweek. ...Southern and central High Plains... Significant fire weather conditions appear likely ahead of the strong mid-level trough developing over the southern Great Basin and Rockies D3/Tue-D4/Wed. Low-level mass response will begin to strengthen D3/Tue as 50-60 kt mid-level flow overspreads the southern High Plains. The lee trough and downslope pressure gradients will likely support 15-25 mph southwesterly flow across portions of eastern NM, southern CO, and western OK/TX coincident with warm temperatures and RH less than 20%. Widespread elevated and critical fire weather conditions appear likely given ongoing drought stress within ample dry fuels. As the main upper trough ejects onto the Plains early D4/Wed, already strong mid-level flow is forecast to strengthen further as the core of a 120 kt H5 jet ejects eastward out of the Four Corners above southern CO and north central NM. A sub 1000 mb lee low will develop over the central Plains early, supporting very strong surface flow through much of the day. Ensemble and deterministic guidance lend strong confidence to widespread sustained surface winds greater than 30 mph across much of the Plains. Model soundings also hint at greater gust potential due to turbulent mixing of momentum aloft. Widespread gusts upwards of 50-60 mph may also develop. Despite very strong downslope winds and anomalously warm surface temperatures, increasing Pacific moisture and cloud cover may hamper diurnal RH minimums through the corridor of strongest surface winds. Model guidance remains split, suggesting low confidence in RH below 20% through the day. However, the combination of abundant dry fuels, ongoing drought, and very strong winds suggests the potential for significant fire weather activity through much of the central and southern Plains D4/Friday. D5/Thu and beyond, continued troughing over the southern US will result in the intrusion of a cool airmass behind several fast moving cold fronts. Low-level flow will alternate between northerly and southerly as fronts progress through the remainder of the week. Precipitation coverage is also expected to increase next weekend with the active Pacific jet and periodic moisture return developing across the southern Plains. While overall mid-level flow will remain strong, current ensemble and deterministic guidance shows little if any overlap with dry and warm surface conditions across much of the CONUS. Potential for sustained fire weather conditions appears low at this time. ..Lyons.. 12/12/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$ CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT