Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
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| D3 | Wed, Dec 15, 2021 - Thu, Dec 16, 2021 | D6 | Sat, Dec 18, 2021 - Sun, Dec 19, 2021 |
| D4 | Thu, Dec 16, 2021 - Fri, Dec 17, 2021 | D7 | Sun, Dec 19, 2021 - Mon, Dec 20, 2021 |
| D5 | Fri, Dec 17, 2021 - Sat, Dec 18, 2021 | D8 | Mon, Dec 20, 2021 - Tue, Dec 21, 2021 |
| (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) | |||
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 132156 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 PM CST Mon Dec 13 2021 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z Strong midlevel winds within the base of a deep large-scale trough will advance eastward from the Four Corners region toward the south-central Rockies on Day 3/Wednesday. As this occurs, a surface cyclone will rapidly deepen and move east-northeastward from eastern WY across NE, with a dryline moving eastward across the south-central Plains. The overlap of strong deep-layer west-southwesterly winds, a tightening surface pressure gradient, and dry boundary-layer conditions behind the dryline will result in high-end Critical fire-weather conditions across parts of the southern and central High Plains on Day 3/Wednesday. A cold front will eventually move through the region on Wednesday night, with dry/breezy conditions continuing in its wake. ...Day 3/Wednesday - Central and Southern High Plains... Strong westerly surface winds of 25-35 mph (locally higher) will develop in response to the tightening surface pressure gradient peripheral to the deepening surface cyclone over eastern WY. At the same time, intense midlevel flow will cross the south-central Rockies, with downslope warming/drying supporting a few hours of critically low RH. Efficient diurnal heating west of the dryline will allow for a deeply-mixed boundary layer to extend into the strong westerly flow aloft, supporting widespread wind gusts in excess of 55 mph. Ongoing drought conditions and highly receptive fuels combined with these meteorological conditions will support a few hours of high-end Critical conditions, and localized Extremely Critical conditions will be possible. By the evening timeframe, the cold front will overspread the region with a west-northwesterly wind shift and dry/breezy conditions continuing. ..Weinman/Lyons.. 12/13/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$ CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT