Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
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| D3 | Thu, Dec 16, 2021 - Fri, Dec 17, 2021 | D6 | Sun, Dec 19, 2021 - Mon, Dec 20, 2021 |
| D4 | Fri, Dec 17, 2021 - Sat, Dec 18, 2021 | D7 | Mon, Dec 20, 2021 - Tue, Dec 21, 2021 |
| D5 | Sat, Dec 18, 2021 - Sun, Dec 19, 2021 | D8 | Tue, Dec 21, 2021 - Wed, Dec 22, 2021 |
| (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) | |||
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 142150 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CST Tue Dec 14 2021 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z The probability of Critical fire-weather conditions appears too low to introduce any delineations at this time. A belt of enhanced zonal midlevel flow initially spanning the entire CONUS will shift eastward across the mid-Mississippi Valley and eventually the Northeast this weekend, accompanying a low-amplitude large-scale trough. As this occurs, cold surface ridging will infiltrate the Great Plains, as a lee trough sharpens over the northern and central High Plains. A midlevel ridge will briefly build over the western states this weekend, favoring an enhanced offshore pressure gradient over southern California. By late this weekend, the ridge will breakdown in response to multiple shortwave troughs moving ashore over the West Coast through early next week. ...Central and Southern High Plains... On Day 3/Thursday, the enhanced zonal midlevel flow crossing the central Rockies and related lee troughing will result in localized fire-weather concerns. Presently, the overlap of breezy southerly winds and low RH appears too spatially limited to introduce probabilities, though trends will need to be monitored. For Day 4/Friday, breezy northerly winds and dry conditions will overspread the southern Great Plains, potentially fostering Elevated fire-weather conditions. Continued discrepancies amongst the medium-range model guidance casts uncertainty on where the best overlap of dry/breezy conditions will reside. ...Southern California... As the midlevel ridge briefly builds over the western CONUS, an enhanced offshore pressure gradient and deep northeasterly flow will develop over southern California from Day 4/Friday-Day 6/Sunday. While dry/breezy conditions will raise some fire-weather concerns, recent/ongoing rainfall may limit the overall fire-weather threat. ..Weinman/Lyons.. 12/14/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$ CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT