Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
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| D3 | Mon, Dec 20, 2021 - Tue, Dec 21, 2021 | D6 | Thu, Dec 23, 2021 - Fri, Dec 24, 2021 |
| D4 | Tue, Dec 21, 2021 - Wed, Dec 22, 2021 | D7 | Fri, Dec 24, 2021 - Sat, Dec 25, 2021 |
| D5 | Wed, Dec 22, 2021 - Thu, Dec 23, 2021 | D8 | Sat, Dec 25, 2021 - Sun, Dec 26, 2021 |
| (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) | |||
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 182035 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 PM CST Sat Dec 18 2021 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z Mid-level ridging is forecast to build eastward across the western CONUS Day 3/Monday and into the Plains by Day 6/Thursday. While model uncertainty increases substantially thereafter, there is some potential for a mid-level trough to move across the Southwest and into the Plains late Day 6/Thursday or Day 7/Friday into next weekend. At the surface, persistent lee troughing across the central/southern High Plains will maintain downslope flow with dry/breezy conditions most days through the extended forecast period. ...Southern/Central Plains... The presence of modestly enhanced mid-level flow alongside a dry low-level air mass and critically receptive fuels suggests at least locally elevated fire weather conditions will be possible across some portion of the southern/central Plains Day 4/Tuesday into Day 6/Thursday. Fire weather concerns may increase Day 7/Friday or Day 8/Saturday, as stronger flow aloft overspreads the area in association with the aforementioned mid-level trough. At this time, model uncertainty regarding the evolution of the mid-level trough is too large to introduce Critical fire weather probabilities. Nevertheless, the lack of forecast precipitation through the extended (and beyond) suggest this area will need to be monitored closely for favorable overlaps of wind/rh as fuels will remain critically dry. ..Elliott.. 12/18/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$ CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT