Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Dec 19, 2021

Updated: Sun Dec 19 22:02:02 UTC 2021

Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area No Risk Areas Forecast

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 192158

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0358 PM CST Sun Dec 19 2021

   Valid 211200Z - 271200Z

   For the first half of this week, a split/poorly phased midlevel flow
   pattern will persist across the CONUS. During this period, modest
   midlevel west-northwesterly flow peripheral to a belt of stronger
   midlevel winds across the north-central CONUS will support continued
   downslope-related warming/drying and surface lee troughing over the
   High Plains. By mid/late-week, the midlevel pattern will become
   increasingly organized over the western states, as a strong midlevel
   speed maximum accompanying a large-scale trough overspreads the
   western CONUS. As this occurs, an accompanying low-pressure system
   will develop over the northern Rockies and rapidly evolve eastward
   into the upper MS Valley. The tightening pressure gradient
   peripheral to the deepening low-pressure system, very strong
   deep-layer west-southwesterly flow perpendicular to the Rockies, and
   related downslope warming and drying behind a developing dryline
   will support the potential for a substantial fire-weather episode
   over the Great Plains on Day 6/Friday. 

   ...Days 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday - Central and Southern High Plains...
   Modest west-northwesterly midlevel flow crossing the Rockies will
   maintain surface lee troughing and downslope warming/drying across
   the High Plains amid critically dry fuels. Elevated to Critical
   conditions will be possible across southeastern WY, far northeastern
   CO, and the NE panhandle on Day 3/Tuesday afternoon, where a few
   hours of critically low RH and breezy westerly surface winds will
   develop amid critically dry fuels. In addition, Elevated to Critical
   conditions will also be possible during the afternoon hours on Days
   3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday across eastern New Mexico. Here, downslope
   flow and diurnal heating/mixing will favor RH reductions into the
   single digits to lower teens coincident with breezy westerly surface
   winds for several hours. 

   ...Day 6/Friday - Central and Southern Plains...
   The large-scale pattern will support the potential for a substantial
   fire-weather episode across portions of the central and southern
   Great Plains on Day 6/Friday. Very strong deep-layer winds
   perpendicular to the Rockies and rapid drying of the boundary-layer
   behind a developing dryline should foster critically low RH and
   strong surface winds of 25+ mph (with higher gusts) where fuels
   remains highly receptive. 40 percent Critical probabilities have
   been introduced to account for these concerns, and
   adjustments/refinements will likely be needed in future outlooks.

   ..Weinman.. 12/19/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

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