Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Dec 20, 2021

Updated: Mon Dec 20 22:02:02 UTC 2021

Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area No Risk Areas Forecast

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 202158

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0358 PM CST Mon Dec 20 2021

   Valid 221200Z - 281200Z

   Strong midlevel west-southwesterly flow accompanying a large-scale
   trough will advance eastward across the western CONUS from Day
   3/Wednesday through Day 5/Friday, with the strongest flow emerging
   over the Rockies and adjacent Plains on Day 5/Friday. At the same
   time, an attendant surface cyclone will develop over the northern
   Rockies and evolve eastward across the northern Great Plains toward
   the Great Lakes region. Thereafter, enhanced zonal midlevel flow
   will overspread the entire CONUS, with multiple embedded shortwave
   impulses migrating through the flow. A progressive midlevel pattern
   will likely persist through the end of the extended period, with a
   series of shortwave troughs moving ashore over the West Coast. 

   ...Central and Southern High Plains...
   As the enhanced midlevel flow preceding the western CONUS trough
   impinges on the northern Rockies on Day 3/Wednesday, downslope flow
   and diurnal heating/mixing will favor RH reductions into the
   lower/middle teens across much of the High Plains. The critically
   low RH coupled with breezy westerly surface winds peripheral to
   persistent lee troughing will result in elevated to locally critical
   conditions across parts of the central and southern High Plains on
   Day 3/Wednesday afternoon. While locally enhanced fire-weather
   conditions will be possible again on Day 4/Thursday afternoon,
   present indications are that a favorable overlap of low RH and
   breezy surface winds will be limited, precluding highlights at this
   time.

   By Day 5/Friday, the stronger deep-layer flow accompanying the
   western CONUS trough will overspread the Rockies and adjacent
   Plains, where a tight surface pressure gradient and dry
   boundary-layer conditions will develop behind an eastward advancing
   dryline. 40 percent Critical probabilities have been expanded
   slightly southward across the TX Panhandle into the Texas South
   Plains, where medium-range model guidance suggests a favorable
   overlap of strong surface winds and low RH will develop. Additional
   adjustments and refinements will likely be needed over the next
   several days as forecast confidence increases.

   Beyond Day 5/Friday, substantial differences amongst the
   medium-range model guidance casts uncertainty on where the best
   overlap of low RH and breezy surface winds will reside. However,
   current thinking is that enhanced fire-weather conditions may
   persist across the southern Great Plains through the remainder of
   the period, and highlights may eventually be needed.

   ..Weinman.. 12/20/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

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