Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Dec 21, 2021

Updated: Tue Dec 21 22:03:03 UTC 2021

Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area No Risk Areas Forecast

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 212159

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0359 PM CST Tue Dec 21 2021

   Valid 231200Z - 291200Z

   A midlevel trough and associated strong westerly flow aloft will
   traverse the western states, emerging over the south-central Rockies
   and adjacent Plains by Day 4/Friday. At the same time, a broad
   surface low will advance east-southeastward across the central
   Plains before ejecting into the Ohio River Valley. In response, a
   tight pressure gradient will develop over the southern and central
   Plains, where enhanced westerly deep-layer flow will support
   downslope warming and drying. By Day 5/Saturday, the surface low and
   related tight pressure gradient will move eastward into the eastern
   CONUS, as surface ridging overspreads the Plains behind cold frontal
   passage. Thereafter, fire-weather concerns will increase once again
   as another western CONUS trough and accompanying midlevel speed
   maximum crosses the Rockies on Day 6/Sunday, with a lee surface low
   developing in the eastern Colorado vicinity. 

   ...Day 3/Thursday...
   As the leading edge of the strengthening westerly flow aloft
   impinges on the Rockies, lee troughing will be reinforced over the
   High Plains. While locally enhanced fire-weather conditions will be
   possible across the central and southern High Plains during the
   afternoon hours, the overlap of stronger surface winds and low RH
   appears to be spatially limited. 

   ...Day 4/Friday...
   The strengthening westerly deep-layer flow and tightening pressure
   gradient will support 25+ mph winds (with higher gusts) across much
   of the central and southern Plains, with RH reductions into the
   15-25 percent range. While medium-range model guidance shows a plume
   of midlevel moisture extending from the eastern Pacific over the
   area, the strong downslope flow should still support near-critical
   RH where strong/gusty surface winds will develop amid highly
   receptive fuels. 40 percent critical probabilities remain in place
   for this threat, though higher probabilities may eventually be
   warranted as confidence increases.

   ...Days 5-6/Saturday-Sunday...
   The pressure gradient will gradually weaken across the central and
   southern Plains behind the cold frontal passage on Day 5/Saturday.
   With that said, a dry airmass and locally breezy conditions will
   still be possible, potentially supporting fire-weather concerns into
   Day 5/Saturday. By Day 6/Sunday, the fire-weather threat will
   increase once again as breezy surface winds develop in response to a
   deepening lee surface low in the eastern CO vicinity. However, there
   is still uncertainty regarding where the favorable overlap of strong
   winds and low RH will reside, precluding highlights at this time.

   ..Weinman.. 12/21/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

   CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT