Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Dec 22, 2021

Updated: Wed Dec 22 22:01:03 UTC 2021

Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area No Risk Areas Forecast

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 222157

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0357 PM CST Wed Dec 22 2021

   Valid 241200Z - 301200Z

   A robust shortwave trough and associated strong deep-layer flow will
   overspread the central and southern Plains on Day 3/Friday. As this
   occurs, an accompanying surface low will evolve eastward across
   parts of KS, with a tight surface pressure gradient developing along
   its southern periphery. The strong downslope-related warming/drying,
   dry antecedent conditions, and tightening surface pressure gradient
   will support a substantial fire-weather threat across parts of the
   central and southern Plains on Day 3/Friday. On Day 5/Sunday, an
   additional shortwave trough and accompanying strong midlevel flow
   will impinge on the south-central Rockies and adjacent Plains.
   Continued warm and dry conditions coupled with the strengthening
   deep-layer flow will once again favor enhanced fire-weather
   conditions. Ongoing drought and highly receptive fuels across the
   region will further exacerbate the wildfire-spread threat. 

   ...Day 3/Friday... 
   Sustained surface winds of 25+ mph with RH values of 15-25 percent
   will develop across much of the central and southern Plains by the
   afternoon hours. As boundary-layer mixing extends into the strong
   flow aloft, wind gusts of 45+ mph will be possible. While model
   guidance depicts a plume of midlevel moisture extending from the
   eastern Pacific over the area, the strong downslope flow and diurnal
   heating should still support near-critical RH values where very
   strong winds will reside. Persistent differences regarding the
   timing of the shortwave trough and boundary-layer drying continues
   to limit overall forecast confidence, though the potential for a
   substantial fire-weather episode does appear possible. 40 percent
   Critical probabilities remain in place to account for this threat,
   and a Critical Area may eventually be needed as some of the finer
   details become clearer.

   ...Day 5/Sunday... 
   Fire-weather concerns increase once again for Day 5/Sunday across
   the central and southern Plains, as strong midlevel flow overspreads
   a warm/dry boundary layer. While notable differences are evident
   amongst the medium-range model guidance, current indications are
   that a tight surface pressure gradient peripheral to a deepening lee
   surface low combined with downslope warming/drying will support
   another fire-weather threat. 40 percent Critical probabilities have
   been introduced, and adjustments/refinements to the risk area will
   likely be needed with future updates.

   ..Weinman.. 12/22/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

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