Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Dec 23, 2021

Updated: Thu Dec 23 20:26:03 UTC 2021

Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area D4 29,123 268,797 Garden City, KS...Liberal, KS...Pampa, TX...Dumas, TX...Borger, TX...

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 232022

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0222 PM CST Thu Dec 23 2021

   Valid 251200Z - 311200Z

   Throughout the extended forecast period, a large-scale trough will
   generally remain centered over the western CONUS, with a broad swath
   of enhanced midlevel west-southwesterly flow persisting across much
   of the central CONUS. Multiple strong/compact shortwave troughs will
   emerge from the base of the larger-scale trough and overspread the
   central and southern Plains, where very warm and dry conditions will
   be in place. This pattern will support multiple periods of enhanced
   fire-weather conditions over parts of the central and southern
   Plains, especially from Day 4/Sunday through Day 6/Tuesday.
   Currently, the most concerning fire-weather threat appears to be
   centered on the southern High Plains on Day 4/Sunday, and 70 percent
   Critical probabilities have been introduced to account for this
   risk.

   ...Day 4/Sunday...
   A potent shortwave trough and accompanying strong deep-layer
   west-southwesterly flow will overspread the central and southern
   Plains, while an attendant surface low rapidly deepens in the lee of
   the central Rockies. In response, a tight pressure gradient will
   develop across parts of the central and southern Plains, where
   strong downslope warming/drying behind an eastward advancing dryline
   will likely yield critical fire-weather conditions centered on the
   TX and OK Panhandles. A multi-model consensus suggests that a
   corridor of 25-30 mph sustained surface winds will overlap 15-20
   percent RH (locally lower) for a few hours on Day 4/Sunday
   afternoon. With critically dry fuels across the region and the
   potential for 40-55 mph boundary-layer winds to mix down to the
   surface, the 70 percent Critical area is warranted at this time.
   Adjustments and refinements will likely be needed to the risk area
   with future outlooks.  

   ...Days 5-6/Monday-Tuesday...
   Persistent downslope trajectories off the south-central Rockies will
   maintain lee troughing over the southern High Plains, and modestly
   dry boundary-layer conditions will continue on Day 5/Monday. A
   tightening surface pressure gradient peripheral to the lee troughing
   will support breezy surface winds across the southern High Plains,
   though somewhat cool boundary-layer conditions within a post-frontal
   airmass may limit RH reductions to an extent. By Day 6/Tuesday, an
   additional strong shortwave trough will impinge on the south-central
   Rockies and adjacent Plains, with robust deep-layer
   west-southwesterly flow developing atop warm/dry conditions.
   Enhanced fire-weather conditions will be possible during the
   afternoon and evening hours, as 15-25 mph surface winds develop amid
   15-20 percent RH and critically dry fuels. 40 percent Critical
   probabilities have been introduced for Day 6/Tuesday, and higher
   probabilities may eventually be warranted if these trends continue.

   ..Weinman.. 12/23/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

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