Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Dec 24, 2021

Updated: Fri Dec 24 21:57:03 UTC 2021

Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area D3 59,860 409,024 Garden City, KS...Dodge City, KS...Liberal, KS...Pampa, TX...Dumas, TX...

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 242152

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0352 PM CST Fri Dec 24 2021

   Valid 261200Z - 011200Z

   Strong ambient midlevel flow, above-normal temperatures, and
   increasingly dry fuels will set the stage for an active fire weather
   pattern across the central and southern Plains through at least the
   middle of next week. 

   On Sunday (Day 3), a strong mid-level jet accompanying a
   deamplifying negatively tilted shortwave trough will move into the
   Plains. This trough/jet will induce lee cyclogenesis across Wyoming
   into northern Colorado before consolidating into a deep surface low
   along the Nebraska-Kansas border by early evening. To the southeast
   of this strong low, a well-defined low-level thermal ridge will
   become established by early afternoon from northwest Texas into
   western Kansas. As the aforementioned strong midlevel jet moves into
   the Plains and interacts with the low-level thermal ridge, critical
   fire weather conditions are likely across much of western Kansas,
   the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles, into northwest Oklahoma. Here,
   surface winds above 20 mph and low-level relative humidity
   percentages in the teens are likely. Uncertainty remains as to how
   far east the critical fire conditions will persist overnight as some
   guidance suggests strong winds and anomalously warm temperatures
   will persist across much of Kansas well after dark.

   The wind fields relax a bit on Monday (Day 4) ahead of the next
   trough forecast to move into the Plains on Tuesday (Day 5). Elevated
   to locally critical fire concerns are likely across portions of the
   southern and central Plains, given the strong ambient flow aloft and
   the overall dry conditions. However, the exact location of where
   this may occur will depend on the strength and timing of the Tuesday
   trough, as this will determine the strength of the dry return flow.
   Given this uncertainty, no probabilities for critical conditions
   were included on Monday.

   Critical fire conditions are likely to return to the Plains by
   Tuesday (Day 5) as another strong midlevel trough/jet moves into the
   area. Once again, a strong surface low should track across a portion
   of the Plains, with a low-level thermal ridge developing to the
   southeast of the surface low. At this time, considerable uncertainty
   in the exact timing and location of critical features precludes the
   introduction of categorical critical fire delineation (70 percent
   probability). However, a broad area of 40 percent exists across the
   Plains, with future refinements likely in subsequent outlooks. 

   After Tuesday, the active fire pattern should relax for a few days
   as the core of the midlevel jet should develop farther north and
   east of the Plains region. However, the strength of the background
   flow should be sufficient that locally elevated to perhaps critical
   conditions cannot be ruled out.

   ..Marsh.. 12/24/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

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