Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
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| D3 | Mon, Dec 27, 2021 - Tue, Dec 28, 2021 | D6 | Thu, Dec 30, 2021 - Fri, Dec 31, 2021 |
| D4 | Tue, Dec 28, 2021 - Wed, Dec 29, 2021 | D7 | Fri, Dec 31, 2021 - Sat, Jan 01, 2022 |
| D5 | Wed, Dec 29, 2021 - Thu, Dec 30, 2021 | D8 | Sat, Jan 01, 2022 - Sun, Jan 02, 2022 |
| (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) | |||
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 252119 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 PM CST Sat Dec 25 2021 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z A somewhat active fire weather pattern is expected to continue across the southern/central Plains through much of the extended forecast period as westerly/southwesterly enhanced mid-level flow overlaps an unseasonably warm air mass and fuels that are critically dry. ...Day 3/Monday: Northeast New Mexico to western Kansas... While elevated fire weather conditions are possible Day 3/Monday across portions of the central/southern High Plains in a return flow regime, the probability of widespread critical conditions currently remains less than 40%. ...Day 4/Tuesday: Central/Southern Plains... A relatively greater potential for critical fire weather conditions may materialize Day 4/Tuesday across the central/southern Plains as stronger mid-level flow overspreads the area. However, there remains large uncertainty regarding the timing/location of the enhanced mid-level flow (and associated strength of the low-level winds) and overall magnitude of the RH reductions. Nevertheless, a forecast of at least near-critical fire weather conditions overlapping critically dry fuels continues to support 40% probabilities for critical conditions. ...Day 5/Wednesday - Day 8/Saturday: Central/Southern Plains... While forecast confidence in the timing/location of critical features remains rather low from Day 5/Wednesday through the remainder of the extended forecast period, the lack of forecast rainfall coupled with the presence of periodic enhancements to the mid-level flow suggest at least elevated to locally critical conditions will remain possible. ..Elliott.. 12/25/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$ CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT