Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Dec 26, 2021

Updated: Sun Dec 26 21:38:03 UTC 2021

Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area No Risk Areas Forecast

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 262134

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0334 PM CST Sun Dec 26 2021

   Valid 281200Z - 031200Z

   A persistent/broad mid-level trough across the western United States
   through much of the extended forecast period will maintain at least
   modestly enhanced mid-level flow atop a broad area of critically dry
   fuels across the central/southern Plains. Meanwhile, associated lee
   troughing/cyclogenesis should foster breezy/gusty surface winds
   nearly each day leading to increased fire weather concerns where
   fuels are receptive. A higher amplitude mid-level trough is forecast
   to move across the western United States and into the Plains
   sometime in the Day 7/Saturday into Day 8/Sunday time frame. 

   ...Day 3/Tuesday: Central/Southern Plains...
   Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions should develop
   through the morning and into the afternoon Day 3/Tuesday across the
   central/southern Plains as gusty surface winds overlap areas with
   relatively poor overnight RH recoveries. Overall, the trend in model
   guidance over the past few days has been to move the corridor of
   enhanced mid-level flow and the surface cyclone east of the
   central/southern Plains earlier in the day, which may reduce the
   duration/coverage of any near critical conditions. Nevertheless, a
   rather broad area of elevated to locally critical conditions is
   expected. Additionally, a cold front with a strong wind shift
   (westerly to northerly) is forecast to move from Kansas into
   Oklahoma during the late afternoon and into the evening, which could
   complicate any ongoing fire suppression efforts.  

   ...Day 4/Wednesday - Day 6/Friday: Central/Southern Plains...
   The potential for at least locally elevated fire weather conditions
   will continue Day 4/Wednesday through Day 6/Friday as modestly
   enhanced mid-level flow, breezy surface winds, and a dry air mass
   continue to overlap critically dry fuels. Though, the probability
   for widespread critical conditions currently remains low.

   ...Day 7/Saturday: Southern Plains...
   While larger-scale fire weather concerns could return Day 7/Saturday
   as a higher-amplitude trough overspreads the southern Plains,
   relatively poor run-to-run model consistency on the evolution of
   critical features reduces confidence and precludes introducing
   Critical probabilities at this time.

   ..Elliott.. 12/26/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

   CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT