Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
| ||||||||
| D3 | Wed, Dec 29, 2021 - Thu, Dec 30, 2021 | D6 | Sat, Jan 01, 2022 - Sun, Jan 02, 2022 |
| D4 | Thu, Dec 30, 2021 - Fri, Dec 31, 2021 | D7 | Sun, Jan 02, 2022 - Mon, Jan 03, 2022 |
| D5 | Fri, Dec 31, 2021 - Sat, Jan 01, 2022 | D8 | Mon, Jan 03, 2022 - Tue, Jan 04, 2022 |
| (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) | |||
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 272053 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CST Mon Dec 27 2021 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z Enhanced mid-level flow -- attendant to a persistent broad mid-level trough across the western United States -- is forecast to continue over the southern/central Plains into Day 5/Friday. Thereafter, the mid-level trough is forecast to amplify as it advances eastward from the Southwest Day 6/Saturday to the Southeast Day 7/Sunday. Meanwhile, periodic strengthening of the lee surface cyclone/trough will maintain gusty and dry downslope low-level flow across the southern/central Plains. ...Day 3/Wednesday: southern Plains and far southern portions of the central Plains... Ensemble guidance has trended toward a slightly more amplified shortwave trough (embedded in the broader flow aloft) moving across the Rockies and into the Plains Day 3/Wednesday. In turn, forecast surface winds have increased with the strengthening of a surface lee cyclone and the associated tightening of the surface pressure gradient. While uncertainties regarding duration, extent, and magnitude of critical conditions remain, there is enough confidence in near critical fire weather conditions over critically dry fuels to introduce 40% probabilities for Critical. This area will continue to be monitored for further refinements or upgrades as guidance comes into better agreement. ...Day 4/Thursday - Day 5/Friday: Central/Southern Plains... The potential for at least locally elevated fire weather conditions will continue Day 4/Thursday into perhaps Day 5/Friday as modestly enhanced mid-level flow, breezy surface winds, and a dry air mass continue to overlap critically dry fuels. At this time, the probability for widespread critical conditions remains low. ...Day 6/Saturday: Southern High Plains... While larger-scale fire weather concerns could return Day 6/Saturday across the Transpecos into the Edwards Plateau of Texas, uncertainty regarding the evolution of critical features (e.g., upper level trough position/magnitude/timing, fuel receptiveness, etc.) remains too large to introduce 40% probabilities for Critical conditions. ..Elliott.. 12/27/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$ CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT