Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
| ||||||||
| D3 | Thu, Dec 30, 2021 - Fri, Dec 31, 2021 | D6 | Sun, Jan 02, 2022 - Mon, Jan 03, 2022 |
| D4 | Fri, Dec 31, 2021 - Sat, Jan 01, 2022 | D7 | Mon, Jan 03, 2022 - Tue, Jan 04, 2022 |
| D5 | Sat, Jan 01, 2022 - Sun, Jan 02, 2022 | D8 | Tue, Jan 04, 2022 - Wed, Jan 05, 2022 |
| (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) | |||
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 282123 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 PM CST Tue Dec 28 2021 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z Persistent mid-level troughing will maintain enhanced flow aloft across the central and southern Plains Day 3/Thursday into Day 4/Friday. While the mid-level trough is forecast to finally begin advancing eastward across the Southwest Day 4/Friday, the plains Day 5/Saturday, and then across the Southeast Day 6/Sunday, considerable differences in key features (e.g., magnitude/timing/location of mid-level wind enhancement and associated surface cyclone) present a challenging fire weather forecast from Day 4/Friday through New Years weekend. ...Day 3/Thursday - Day 4/Friday: Central/Southern Plains... Another day of elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions is anticipated Day 3/Thursday, as enhanced mid-level flow continues to remain over an area of critically receptive fuels. As the mid-level trough amplifies across the Southwest, expect strengthening of the lee cyclone over portions of the northern Central Plains, which will tighten the pressure gradient. While uncertainty remains regarding the duration, magnitude, and extent of fire weather conditions, there is enough confidence of locally elevated to near critical conditions over a broad enough area to introduce 40% probabilities for Critical conditions. Similar conditions (i.e., elevated to locally critical) may arise Day 4/Friday in similar areas. Though, uncertainty is currently too large to introduce Critical probabilities. ...Day 5/Saturday - Day 6/Sunday: Southern Plains... Fire weather concerns may continue across portions of the southern Plains Day 5/Saturday and then across south/south-central Texas Day 6/Sunday. However, uncertainty regarding the evolution of the aforementioned mid-level trough is currently too large to introduce Critical probabilities. ..Elliott.. 12/28/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$ CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT