Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
| ||||||||
| D3 | Fri, Dec 31, 2021 - Sat, Jan 01, 2022 | D6 | Mon, Jan 03, 2022 - Tue, Jan 04, 2022 |
| D4 | Sat, Jan 01, 2022 - Sun, Jan 02, 2022 | D7 | Tue, Jan 04, 2022 - Wed, Jan 05, 2022 |
| D5 | Sun, Jan 02, 2022 - Mon, Jan 03, 2022 | D8 | Wed, Jan 05, 2022 - Thu, Jan 06, 2022 |
| (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) | |||
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 292101
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0301 PM CST Wed Dec 29 2021
Valid 311200Z - 061200Z
A western United States mid/upper-level trough is forecast to
finally advance eastward across the Southwest Day 3/Friday, the
Plains Day 4/Saturday, and the Southeast Day 5/Sunday. In the wake
of the trough, mid-level ridging is forecast to build across the
West Day 4/Saturday into Day 5/Sunday, before mostly zonal mid-level
flow (or perhaps slight troughing) returns Day 6/Monday.
...Day 3/Friday: southeast Colorado to western Oklahoma...
Elevated fire weather conditions may materialize Day 3/Friday (New
Year's Eve) as breezy surface winds develop during the afternoon.
However, RH reductions should remain modest (especially compared to
prior days), which may keep the fire weather threat more localized.
Currently, the most likely area for Elevated fire weather concerns
exists across portions of Southeast Colorado, where the most
favorable overlap of wind/rh and critically receptive fuels is
forecast. These conditions could also extend southeastward into
western Oklahoma, though RH reductions are even more uncertain
across this area.
...Day 4/Saturday - Day 5/Sunday: southern Plains...
At least locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible Day
4/Saturday (New Year's Day) across the southern Plains and then Day
5/Sunday across south/south-central Texas, as enhanced mid-level
flow near the base of the aforementioned trough overspreads the
area. Though, the potential for large-scale critical conditions
remains less than 40% at this time.
...Day 6/Monday - Day 7 Tuesday: central/southern High Plains...
Larger scale fire weather concerns could return early next week as
strengthening lee troughing enhances dry return flow. Though, the
uncertainty regarding coverage, duration, and magnitude of fire
weather conditions is currently too large to warrant introducing
Critical probabilities.
..Elliott.. 12/29/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
$$
CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT