Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
| ||||||||
| D3 | Sun, Jan 02, 2022 - Mon, Jan 03, 2022 | D6 | Wed, Jan 05, 2022 - Thu, Jan 06, 2022 |
| D4 | Mon, Jan 03, 2022 - Tue, Jan 04, 2022 | D7 | Thu, Jan 06, 2022 - Fri, Jan 07, 2022 |
| D5 | Tue, Jan 04, 2022 - Wed, Jan 05, 2022 | D8 | Fri, Jan 07, 2022 - Sat, Jan 08, 2022 |
| (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) | |||
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 312200 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 PM CST Fri Dec 31 2021 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z A strong mid-upper-level trough will move across the southeast United States early in the forecast period (Sunday-Monday; Day 3-4) before transitioning to a broad cyclonic flow regime next week. Embedded within this larger-scale flow, a series of short-wave troughs will quickly move across the country. At the surface, a cold, dry airmass will overspread much of the country east of the Rockies this week, with each passing mid-upper-level trough reinforcing this cold, dry airmass. Fire concerns should be mostly confined to the south-central United States this week, with the potential for critical fire conditions on Tuesday stretching from eastern New Mexico, across the southern Texas Panhandle, into west and northwest Texas. Here strong downslope flow between 10-20 mph, aided by weak cyclogenesis across the region, will warm an already dry airmass. The result will be temperatures in the mid-50 F to low 60 F range with minimum relative humidity percentages falling into the low teens at least locally. ERC percentiles are forecast to be around 90 indicative of very dry fuels. Given this fire-effective environment, a 40% area is introduced with this forecast. After Tuesday, large-scale fire concerns look to lessen as a colder airmass is poised to move into the region by late week. Confidence in the timing of this front, overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning, should minimize any large-scale fire concerns. However, if this frontal passage is delayed, fire concerns may increase again across portions of the southern High Plains. ..Marsh.. 12/31/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$ CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT