Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
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| D3 | Mon, Jan 03, 2022 - Tue, Jan 04, 2022 | D6 | Thu, Jan 06, 2022 - Fri, Jan 07, 2022 |
| D4 | Tue, Jan 04, 2022 - Wed, Jan 05, 2022 | D7 | Fri, Jan 07, 2022 - Sat, Jan 08, 2022 |
| D5 | Wed, Jan 05, 2022 - Thu, Jan 06, 2022 | D8 | Sat, Jan 08, 2022 - Sun, Jan 09, 2022 |
| (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) | |||
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 012103 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0303 PM CST Sat Jan 01 2022 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Presently, there is reasonable agreement between the ECMWF and the GFS with regard to the upper-level pattern through the latter part of next week. Given this has been a stable trend over the past 1-2 days of model runs, there is above average confidence in the upper-level and surface patterns. Upper-level ridging will be the main feature across much of the southwestern and central U.S. to begin the week. At the surface, a cold front will have just passed through much of the Gulf of Mexico with colder air remaining across the Plains and the East. Towards the middle and end of next week, shortwave troughs are forecast to move through the central/southern Plains. A cold front will move to near the Red River with the initial trough before reinforcing arctic air moves farther south with the second trough. Fire weather concerns will be focused in the southern High Plains where little precipitation is expected and downslope warming will lead to RH reductions. Concerns will be low elsewhere due to cool/cold temperatures and precipitation. ...Southern High Plains... The initial upper-level trough will a promote a central Plains cyclone on Tuesday. A surface trough will extend into the southern High Plains. Mid-level winds will be increasing through the day. Strong downslope winds across the region will act to lower RH to near 10% in some locations with temperatures likely into the 60s F. Fuels are expected to be near critically dry by Tuesday. However, with some light precipitation being observed today in a few locations, increased critical fire weather probabilities will be withheld to assess fuel impacts. ..Wendt.. 01/01/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$ CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT