Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
|
| D3 | Tue, Jan 04, 2022 - Wed, Jan 05, 2022 | D6 | Fri, Jan 07, 2022 - Sat, Jan 08, 2022 |
| D4 | Wed, Jan 05, 2022 - Thu, Jan 06, 2022 | D7 | Sat, Jan 08, 2022 - Sun, Jan 09, 2022 |
| D5 | Thu, Jan 06, 2022 - Fri, Jan 07, 2022 | D8 | Sun, Jan 09, 2022 - Mon, Jan 10, 2022 |
| (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) | |||
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 022051 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CST Sun Jan 02 2022 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z An upper-level trough will move through the Great Basin and into the central Plains to begin the new week. At the surface, a central Plains cyclone will develop and move eastward into the Upper Midwest. An accompanying cold front will move southward to near the Gulf Coast. The upper trough will intensify and become more broad as it moves across the Great Lakes and Northeast. Another push of arctic air will move into the Plains and Southeast by mid to late week. Reasonable agreement between the GFS/ECMWF still exists through about Friday/Saturday. Another upper trough and surface cyclone may impact the southern High Plains on Friday. ...Southern High Plains... The strong upper-level trough moving into the central Rockies will drive surface low development in the Plains on Tuesday. A lee trough will extend into the southern High Plains. Wind fields from the surface to mid-levels will increase into the afternoon. Strong winds in the lowest portions of the atmosphere will also lead to stronger gusts. Surface winds of 20-30 mph are possible with RH near 10% in some locations. While there has been recent snowfall, drying will occur on the preceding days along with fuels having been very dry prior to the snowfall. Critical fire weather is most probable across east-central New Mexico into the southern Texas Panhandle and the northern South Plains. Elevated conditions are possible elsewhere within the region where uncertainty regarding fuels and duration are greater. Fire weather conditions could again occur on Friday. Uncertainty with this event remains high as it will be on the heels of a fairly strong arctic airmass. Guidance is not in agreement about the duration of potentially critical conditions as the ECMWF shows cooler surface temperatures. With the threat conditional on evolution/modification of the arctic air, probabilities will be withheld. ..Wendt.. 01/02/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$ CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT