Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
| ||||||||
| D3 | Wed, Jan 05, 2022 - Thu, Jan 06, 2022 | D6 | Sat, Jan 08, 2022 - Sun, Jan 09, 2022 |
| D4 | Thu, Jan 06, 2022 - Fri, Jan 07, 2022 | D7 | Sun, Jan 09, 2022 - Mon, Jan 10, 2022 |
| D5 | Fri, Jan 07, 2022 - Sat, Jan 08, 2022 | D8 | Mon, Jan 10, 2022 - Tue, Jan 11, 2022 |
| (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) | |||
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 032058 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CST Mon Jan 03 2022 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z Model agreement on the upper-level and surface pattern continues to be relatively high through Saturday. A strong upper trough will start the period over the upper Great Lakes. Broad troughing will generally remain across the East as another shortwave trough feature moves through the Plains and into the Mid-South by late in the week. A cold front will move through the Plains into the northern Gulf Wednesday and Thursday. Shortwave ridging over the central/southern High Plains on Friday will shift east and another shortwave trough will impact the region during the weekend. Another cold front is forecast to impact the southern Plains in the wake of this trough. Cool/cold temperatures and precipitation will mitigate most fire weather concerns across the CONUS. Dry conditions and receptive fuels will remain in the southern High Plains, where increases in surface winds will lead to increased fire danger. ...Southern High Plains... The mid-week arctic airmass will continue to shift south and east through the end of the week and into the weekend. Dry, southerly winds will return across the southern Plains Friday and Saturday ahead of the next shortwave trough. With no precipitation expected, some increase in fire weather concerns can be expected from eastern New Mexico into western Texas. Saturday looks to have a greater potential for critical fire weather given a more modified arctic airmass and stronger mid-level winds. The GFS would suggest greater risk with higher surface temperatures and lower RH than the ECMWF. Further uncertainty exists with regard to the approaching cold front from the north on Saturday which would have impact on the duration of critical conditions. No highlights will be added at this time. ..Wendt.. 01/03/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$ CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT