Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
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| D3 | Fri, Jan 07, 2022 - Sat, Jan 08, 2022 | D6 | Mon, Jan 10, 2022 - Tue, Jan 11, 2022 |
| D4 | Sat, Jan 08, 2022 - Sun, Jan 09, 2022 | D7 | Tue, Jan 11, 2022 - Wed, Jan 12, 2022 |
| D5 | Sun, Jan 09, 2022 - Mon, Jan 10, 2022 | D8 | Wed, Jan 12, 2022 - Thu, Jan 13, 2022 |
| (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) | |||
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 052040 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CST Wed Jan 05 2022 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z Agreement between the GFS and ECMWF continues to be high through early next week. Thereafter, models begin to diverge with respect to the upper-level pattern. A strong trough will exit the East Coast this Friday. A broad trough will develop over the West and shift into the Plains and Midwest through the weekend. As this occurs, a lee trough should be present on both Friday and Saturday in the southern High Plains. Another strong cold front will move into the southern Plains late Saturday into early Sunday. For next week, an upper ridge is expected to develop across parts of the West and Plains. Guidance shows potential for shortwave trough to develop in the vicinity of the Lower Colorado River Valley by the middle of next week, but predictability is low. ...Southern High Plains... A strong cold front is expected to impact the region late today into Thursday. As the next trough moves eastward, the expectation is for some airmass modification to occur, particularly in areas where downslope flow returns this Friday. A modest increase in fire weather concerns could occur on Friday, but confidence is low given the potentially short duration. On Saturday, a deeper lee trough is expected along with stronger mid-level winds. This should favor areas of potentially critical fire weather as no precipitation is forecast in the interim. Confidence remains at 40% due to some spread in forecast temperatures/RH. However, the pattern would support above normal temperatures and the warmer guidance has been given more weight accordingly. ..Wendt.. 01/05/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$ CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT