Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
| ||||||||
| D3 | Thu, Jan 13, 2022 - Fri, Jan 14, 2022 | D6 | Sun, Jan 16, 2022 - Mon, Jan 17, 2022 |
| D4 | Fri, Jan 14, 2022 - Sat, Jan 15, 2022 | D7 | Mon, Jan 17, 2022 - Tue, Jan 18, 2022 |
| D5 | Sat, Jan 15, 2022 - Sun, Jan 16, 2022 | D8 | Tue, Jan 18, 2022 - Wed, Jan 19, 2022 |
| (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) | |||
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 112034 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CST Tue Jan 11 2022 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z Broad northwesterly flow aloft will dominate the upper pattern across the central CONUS late this week into the weekend, with an embedded mid-level trough traversing the southern Plains Days 4-5/Friday-Saturday, promoting dry and breezy surface conditions across the southern High Plains. Thereafter, more zonal mid-level flow is expected to overspread the southern Plains Days 6-8/Sunday-Tuesday, with at least one embedded upper trough poised to overspread the region and promote continued modestly dry/breezy flow across the southern High Plains. ...Days 4-5/Friday_Saturday... As the first pronounced upper trough approaches the south-central U.S. from the northwest towards the end of the week, a surface low is expected to rapidly develop around eastern Colorado and surge southeast across the southern Plains with an accompanying cold front. Immediately ahead of the front, potentially critically dry/strong westerly surface winds may develop across western Texas Day 4/Friday afternoon per latest guidance consensus. 40 percent Critical probabilities were introduced as fine fuels are anticipated to be dry enough to support some wildfire-spread potential. By Day 5/Saturday, dry/strong northwesterly winds are expected across western into southern Texas in the post-cold frontal environment. The best chance for critically dry/strong winds is along the Rio Grande, where 40 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced. ...Days 6-8/Sunday-Tuesday... As the zonal upper pattern becomes established across the southern U.S., surface lee troughing will become predominant across the southern High Plains Days 6-7/Sunday-Monday, with surface low development possible on Day 8/Tuesday. Dry and breezy downslope flow is expected across the southern High Plains each day. However, questions remain regarding how strong the westerly surface winds will become each afternoon, with confidence remaining too low to introduce Critical probabilities this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 01/11/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$ CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT