Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Jan 12, 2022

Updated: Wed Jan 12 21:26:03 UTC 2022

Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area No Risk Areas Forecast

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 122121

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0321 PM CST Wed Jan 12 2022

   Valid 141200Z - 201200Z

   A mid-level trough embedded within a broader northwesterly flow
   regime is poised to traverse the southern Plains in tandem with a
   surface low and associated cold front in the Days
   3-4/Friday-Saturday time frame. Dry and breezy conditions are
   expected ahead of and behind the cold front, promoting
   wildfire-spread potential. Thereafter, the northwesterly upper flow
   pattern becomes relatively more zonal, though still broadly cyclonic
   in nature. A second embedded mid-level impulse may develop and
   traverse the southern Plains by the middle of next week, fostering
   continued surface lee troughing across the southern High Plains and
   prolonged dry, occasionally breezy conditions.

   ...Days 3-4/Friday-Saturday - Southern High Plains...
   Rapid surface low development is expected around eastern Colorado
   early Friday, which will surge southward with a cold front through
   Friday afternoon. Along and ahead of the cold front, dry and breezy
   surface conditions associated with downslope flow will likely
   develop by afternoon across southeastern New Mexico into western
   Texas. 40 percent Critical probabilities encompass a broader area
   likely to face sustained dry and breezy surface winds. However,
   portions of southwest Texas may see 20+ mph sustained westerly winds
   amid 15% RH, as suggested by the latest guidance consensus. Given
   the relatively small areal coverage of these conditions, 70%
   Critical probabilities have been withheld, though Critical
   highlights may be needed by Day 2, should the stronger winds/lower
   RH overlap on a more widespread basis in future guidance.

   A dry and breezy post-cold frontal regime may develop in close
   proximity to the Rio Grande in south-central Texas Day 4/Saturday
   afternoon. More recent guidance trends have been showing relatively
   higher surface RH. While 40 percent Critical probabilities have been
   maintained this outlook, these probabilities may need to be removed
   in the future should guidance trend moister. 

   ...Days 5-7/Sunday-Tuesday...
   Broad cyclonic flow aloft should persist across the south-central
   CONUS as a mid-level impulse approaches early next week. Surface
   lee-troughing may occur, promoting dry and breezy surface conditions
   across the southern High Plains Sunday-Tuesday. Given the lack of
   medium-range guidance agreement regarding stronger surface winds, no
   Critical probabilities have been introduced this outlook. Guidance
   trends will continue to be monitored for the need of Critical
   probabilities pending windier surface conditions.

   ..Squitieri.. 01/12/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

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