Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
| ||||||||
| D3 | Sat, Jan 15, 2022 - Sun, Jan 16, 2022 | D6 | Tue, Jan 18, 2022 - Wed, Jan 19, 2022 |
| D4 | Sun, Jan 16, 2022 - Mon, Jan 17, 2022 | D7 | Wed, Jan 19, 2022 - Thu, Jan 20, 2022 |
| D5 | Mon, Jan 17, 2022 - Tue, Jan 18, 2022 | D8 | Thu, Jan 20, 2022 - Fri, Jan 21, 2022 |
| (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) | |||
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 132049 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CST Thu Jan 13 2022 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z A mid-level trough and associated cold front will sweep across the Gulf of Mexico Day 3/Saturday, promoting dry and breezy post-cold frontal conditions over southern Texas. A second upper trough will then traverse the southern Plains Day 4/Sunday, encouraging surface lee-troughing and associated locally dry and breezy conditions across the southern High Plains. On Days 5-6/Monday-Tuesday, more zonal flow aloft will take shape as another embedded mid-level impulse approaches the southern High Plains, fostering surface lee troughing and modestly dry/breezy conditions. ...Day 3/Saturday - Southern Texas... While the surface cold front is expected to be exiting Texas at the start of the period, dry and windy post-frontal conditions are likely near the Rio Grande by Saturday afternoon. 15-25 mph sustained north-northwesterly surface winds overlapping 15-25 percent RH and dry fuels may support Critical wildfire-spread potential, with 40% Critical probabilities maintained. At the moment, at least higher-end Elevated criteria conditions are expected on a more widespread basis. ...Days 4-6/Sunday-Tuesday - Southern High Plains... As a series of mid-level troughs traverse the south-central U.S., surface lee troughing will continue to foster dry low-level air overspreading much of eastern New Mexico into western Texas and far western Oklahoma. Questions still remain regarding how strong surface winds will become, with some medium range guidance members suggesting that sustained surface winds above 15 mph may not become widespread, precluding Critical probabilities this outlook. Still, Elevated criteria conditions are likely across the southern High Plains and Elevated delineations may be needed by the Days 1-2 periods. ..Squitieri.. 01/13/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$ CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT