Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Jan 14, 2022

Updated: Fri Jan 14 21:55:02 UTC 2022

Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area No Risk Areas Forecast

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 142151

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0351 PM CST Fri Jan 14 2022

   Valid 161200Z - 221200Z

   Mid-level troughing across the East is forecast to continue through
   the extended forecast period as a relatively stagnant upper-air
   pattern remains across the western CONUS. At the surface, several
   strong cyclones will accompany troughs within the northwest flow
   aloft along the Gulf Coast and southeastern US. At the same time,
   Canadian high pressure will move into the western CONUS bringing
   much colder temperatures. Cool and stable surface conditions should
   persist across much of the country through next week. Periodic
   southwesterly flow may emerge across portions of the southern Plains
   where surface conditions should be somewhat warmer and drier. Given
   the ongoing drought, some potential for elevated fire weather
   conditions will likely exist across portions of the southern High
   Plains through early next week.

   ...Southern Plains...
   Dry conditions are expected to persist late this weekend and through
   early next week across portions of the southern Plains. Temperatures
   should begin to moderate D3/Sunday after a cold intrusion earlier in
   the weekend. As southerly return flow intensifies, occasional
   overlap of 15+ mph surface winds and humidity below 20% is expected
   to support locally elevated fire weather potential from eastern NM
   into the western TX Panhandle.  The same pattern should continue
   D4/Monday as stronger northwesterly flow aloft will likely remain
   displaced to the north and east. This should limit areal coverage of
   sustained fire weather conditions. Though locally, some elevated
   potential will remain. 

   D5/Tuesday, a shortwave trough within the southern branch of the
   mid-level westerlies is forecast to move out of the Four Corners
   into the southern Rockies. The arrival of stronger winds and forcing
   aloft should strengthen a low-level lee trough and corresponding
   surface winds. While ensemble and deterministic guidance still show
   considerable spread, low-level winds of 15-20+ mph appear possible
   across much of the southern High Plains. Given the several days of
   warming and drying prior to the arrival of stronger winds, low-level
   humidity values are forecast to be 15-20%. The dry conditions and
   gusty winds will likely support widespread elevated and critical
   fire weather potential. A 40% delineation has been included over the
   most likely corridor for sustained elevated/critical conditions
   D5/Tuesday. 

   Beyond D5, the overall forecast appears mostly unfavorable for
   sustained fire weather conditions. A second cold front is forecast
   to move through the southern Plains bringing another shot of cold
   air. Ridging across the west coast may amplify further, enhancing
   northwesterly flow aloft and high pressure development over the
   central CONUS.

   ..Lyons.. 01/14/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

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