Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
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| D3 | Mon, Jan 17, 2022 - Tue, Jan 18, 2022 | D6 | Thu, Jan 20, 2022 - Fri, Jan 21, 2022 |
| D4 | Tue, Jan 18, 2022 - Wed, Jan 19, 2022 | D7 | Fri, Jan 21, 2022 - Sat, Jan 22, 2022 |
| D5 | Wed, Jan 19, 2022 - Thu, Jan 20, 2022 | D8 | Sat, Jan 22, 2022 - Sun, Jan 23, 2022 |
| (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) | |||
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 151914 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 PM CST Sat Jan 15 2022 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z Broad cyclonic upper flow will envelop the central and eastern CONUS as a mid-level shortwave trough impinges on the southern Plains Days 3-4/Monday-Tuesday. Dry and breezy conditions will develop across the southern High Plains with the onset of surface lee-troughing and subsequent low development supported by the approaching mid-level trough. A surface cold front accompanying the low is expected to surge southward towards the Gulf of Mexico by Day 5/Wednesday. Relatively cool conditions limiting widespread significant wildfire-spread potential will ensue across much of south-central CONUS Days 5-8/Wednesday-Saturday. ...Days 3-4/Monday-Tuesday - Southern High Plains... Modestly dry and breezy conditions are likely across eastern New Mexico into western Texas Day 3/Monday as the mid-level trough impinges on the region. Given limited upper support though, the dry and breezy conditions should be localized, precluding Critical probabilities. However, the mid-level trough and associated upper support are expected to overspread the southern High Plains by Day 4/Monday. Widespread 20+ mph sustained westerly surface winds are likely in proximity to a surface low, south of a surface cold front. 70 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced where the latest guidance consensus places the longest term overlap of the stronger winds/15-20 percent RH, and where fuels are anticipated to be critically dry (i.e. 90th percentile ERCs). ..Squitieri.. 01/15/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$ CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT