Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
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| D3 | Sun, Jan 23, 2022 - Mon, Jan 24, 2022 | D6 | Wed, Jan 26, 2022 - Thu, Jan 27, 2022 |
| D4 | Mon, Jan 24, 2022 - Tue, Jan 25, 2022 | D7 | Thu, Jan 27, 2022 - Fri, Jan 28, 2022 |
| D5 | Tue, Jan 25, 2022 - Wed, Jan 26, 2022 | D8 | Fri, Jan 28, 2022 - Sat, Jan 29, 2022 |
| (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) | |||
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 212132 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 PM CST Fri Jan 21 2022 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z The potential for fire weather threats in the extended period is low. A cool air mass currently over the central CONUS will largely remain in place through early next week before a reinforcing cold front pushes southward through the Plains. While strong post-frontal winds are expected across the western Plains D4/Monday into D5/Tuesday, cold temperatures will maintain RH values above critical thresholds. Elevated fire weather concerns may evolve across southwest TX on D4/Monday as an upper-level trough, currently moving into southern CA, shifts east into the southern Plains. Westerly downslope winds may support sufficient warming/drying for RH reductions below 20%, but confidence in this scenario is low due to large spread in deterministic and ensemble solutions. Past D4/Monday and D5/Tuesday, long-range ensembles show high confidence in a persistent western ridge/eastern trough upper-air pattern that is typically favorable for cool weather east of the Rockies and dry conditions west. ..Moore.. 01/21/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$ CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT