Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
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| D3 | Mon, Jan 24, 2022 - Tue, Jan 25, 2022 | D6 | Thu, Jan 27, 2022 - Fri, Jan 28, 2022 |
| D4 | Tue, Jan 25, 2022 - Wed, Jan 26, 2022 | D7 | Fri, Jan 28, 2022 - Sat, Jan 29, 2022 |
| D5 | Wed, Jan 26, 2022 - Thu, Jan 27, 2022 | D8 | Sat, Jan 29, 2022 - Sun, Jan 30, 2022 |
| (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) | |||
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 222142 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CST Sat Jan 22 2022 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z The overall fire weather threat appears low across the CONUS for the extended period. Most solutions continue to show at least low-end fire weather potential across southwest TX and parts of the central/southern High Plains D3/Monday afternoon ahead of and behind a southward moving cold front. However, confidence in the timing/progression of this feature and pre and post-frontal RH remains low due to notable spread in deterministic solutions and low ensemble probabilities. Light precipitation chances early Monday associated with the eastward translation of the upper-level low currently over southern AZ also introduces uncertainty into the fire weather potential. Another cold frontal intrusion into the Plains D5/Wednesday into D6/Thursday will introduce windy conditions, but cool temperatures will likely moderate RH values. Extended ensemble guidance continues to show high probability for a western ridge/eastern trough upper-air regime that will generally help maintain cool conditions east/dry conditions west of the Rockies through the end of the upcoming work week. ..Moore.. 01/22/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$ CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT