Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
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| D3 | Thu, Jan 27, 2022 - Fri, Jan 28, 2022 | D6 | Sun, Jan 30, 2022 - Mon, Jan 31, 2022 |
| D4 | Fri, Jan 28, 2022 - Sat, Jan 29, 2022 | D7 | Mon, Jan 31, 2022 - Tue, Feb 01, 2022 |
| D5 | Sat, Jan 29, 2022 - Sun, Jan 30, 2022 | D8 | Tue, Feb 01, 2022 - Wed, Feb 02, 2022 |
| (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) | |||
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 252118 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 PM CST Tue Jan 25 2022 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z Latest ensemble and long-range deterministic solutions continue to trend towards a potential increase in fire weather concerns over the weekend and into early next week, in particular for the southern High Plains. Upper-level ridging over the West Coast will gradually shift east to the eastern U.S. by early next week as mean troughing returns to the West. While precipitation chances will likely increase for the central/eastern portion of the country for the middle of next week, the probability for appreciable rainfall after the next 48 hours is low for much of the southern High Plains. ...D5/Saturday - Southern High Plains... Southwesterly downslope winds are forecast to strengthen as a lee trough shifts into the Plains during the day Saturday. Winds may increase to 15-25 mph across west TX and into the Panhandles, and RH reductions into the low 20s appear possible. However, fuel status by the weekend will be dependent on rain/snow amounts over the next 48 hours and the degree of drying that can occur on Thursday/Friday. Confidence remains too low for highlights, but trends will continue to be monitored. ...D7/Monday to D8/Tuesday - Southern High Plains... Fire weather conditions may develop again early next week as a surface low begins to deepen across the southern High Plains ahead of an approaching shortwave trough. Most ensemble members show indications of strengthening west/southwesterly downslope flow and falling RH across eastern NM into west TX during this period, but vary considerably on details such as the strength and placement of the low and the surface mass response. Despite the uncertainty, several signals in extended ensemble guidance and deterministic comparisons to climatological norms suggest the potential for fire weather concerns. ..Moore.. 01/25/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$ CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT