Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
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| D3 | Fri, Jan 28, 2022 - Sat, Jan 29, 2022 | D6 | Mon, Jan 31, 2022 - Tue, Feb 01, 2022 |
| D4 | Sat, Jan 29, 2022 - Sun, Jan 30, 2022 | D7 | Tue, Feb 01, 2022 - Wed, Feb 02, 2022 |
| D5 | Sun, Jan 30, 2022 - Mon, Jan 31, 2022 | D8 | Wed, Feb 02, 2022 - Thu, Feb 03, 2022 |
| (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) | |||
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 262153 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 PM CST Wed Jan 26 2022 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z Forecast guidance continues to suggest that any fire weather potential through the extended period will likely be confined to the central to southern High Plains over the weekend and into early next week. Long-range ensembles maintain reasonably good agreement in the eastward translation and eventual breakdown of the upper-level ridge currently over the eastern Pacific. As this occurs, shortwave impulses are forecast to propagate through the southern High Plains, inducing breezy downslope winds in the process. ...Southern High Plains... Although ensemble probabilities for critical fire weather conditions have decreased somewhat over the past 24 hours, many deterministic solutions and ensemble members continue to show dry, windy conditions behind a lee trough across the central to southern High Plains D4/Saturday. In addition to decreased ensemble confidence, much the TX Panhandle and western OK is receiving measurable snowfall that will help moisten fine fuels. The degree of drying that can occur through Saturday is uncertain and may mitigate a more robust fire weather threat. A stronger signal is noted for D7/Monday and D8/Tuesday afternoons as a more amplified trough approaches the region and supports stronger lee troughing. While elevated to critical conditions are possible per more aggressive solutions, the coverage of stronger winds away from terrain features in eastern NM/southwest TX remains in question. As with Saturday, fuel trends will also need to be monitored through next week. ..Moore.. 01/26/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$ CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT